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I just noticed that the $40,000 put option for Bitcoin currently represents a massive position. With a notional value of about $490 million, it is the second-largest bet after open interest – and that says a lot about the fear currently circulating in the market.
BTC is trading around $72,850 right now, but many traders still seem to be expecting a significantly lower fall. The concentration of these put positions at $40,000 indicates that hedges against extreme price drops are in high demand. At the same time, there is a large chunk of $566 million at the $75,000 level – the so-called max pain level, where most options would expire worthless.
What interests me, however, is that although there are more call than put contracts in circulation overall, (the put-call ratio is at 0.72), the distribution of large put positions at lower strikes shows a clear hedging strategy. Traders are not only betting on rising prices but are also simultaneously hedging against further losses. With about $7.3 billion in Bitcoin options expiring at the end of the month, it could get interesting. Here, they are balancing upside potential with protection against tail risks – typical for an uncertain market.