Bitcoin is currently trading at around $72.85k, but something feels strange. The realized price (realized price) remains around $54,286, while the spot price is at $72.85k — meaning there is an average premium of about 21%. This indicates that most investors are still in profit, but the market has not yet reached that "panic selling" stage.

This range points to a buying zone not seen in the past three years, but caution is necessary. At the end of last year, when Bitcoin was trading above $119,000, the premium was 120%. Now it has dropped to 21% — a rapid squeeze, but not a full market reset. During the true bottom of 2022, the spot price was below the realized price. Everyone was at a loss then. The current situation is different.

On-chain data has not yet shown panic at this level. Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative, and institutional demand is weakening. If Bitcoin really wants to bottom out, it might need to drop to around $54,000 — roughly a 20% decline from here. But this test has not yet occurred.

Among the discussions, there is support for Bitcoin in the $65,000–$70k range, and ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion continue in March. So, there are still buyers, but on-chain data has not yet signaled a historical bottom. It’s necessary to wait and observe.