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I noticed that Bitcoin has experienced a pretty sharp crash, dropping from the highs of $90,000 at the beginning of the year to nearly $60,000. The interesting thing is that initially, U.S. stocks seemed to move independently, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs while BTC was crashing. But now things are changing.
It seems that the U.S. stock market is finally following what Bitcoin had already signaled. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures have hit September lows, and honestly, it's no coincidence. Analysts were wondering how long this divergence between U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies would last, and now we have the answer.
The real issue is the rise in Treasury yields. The U.S. 10-year yield has climbed to 4.41%, the highest level since August 1, while the 2-year has touched 3.94%. When yields rise like this, the cost of money increases for everyone, putting pressure on stock valuations. Fears of inflation and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts have pushed yields higher, especially after the escalation in Iran.
What strikes me is how Bitcoin has been a leading indicator of overall risk sentiment. While traditional traders watched U.S. stocks continue to rise, those observing BTC already saw signs of weakness. Now that the stock markets are following, the role of cryptocurrency as a market indicator becomes clear.
Currently, BTC is moving between $65,000 and $75,000, remaining relatively stable after the initial crash. However, options still show significant fear, with put protections at all-time highs. U.S. stocks continue to suffer due to rising yields, and the overall picture suggests that the correction may not be over yet.