Quantum Computing Approaches Critical Point: The Security of Crypto Assets Faces Restructuring

1. Google's Quantum Artificial Intelligence Team, in collaboration with multiple parties, released research indicating that the threshold for cracking 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problems has significantly decreased, requiring only 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and millions of operations, corresponding to fewer than 500k physical qubits to complete, about 20 times less than previous estimates, implying a substantial increase in technological feasibility.
2. The paper emphasizes that future quantum computers could derive private keys within minutes, turning security risks from theoretical to practical. Ethereum researchers further stated that the probability of the "Quantum Day"—when a 10% capable quantum computer appears—is rising, and the market needs to prepare in advance.
3. Bitcoin risks mainly concern transaction and stored asset security. During transaction confirmation, quantum attacks could crack private keys in about 9 minutes, close to its 10-minute block time, with an approximate success rate of 41%. Additionally, about 6.7 million Bitcoins remain at vulnerable addresses, some assets even lost or dormant for long periods, making transfer impossible.
4. Ethereum faces broader risks, including accounts, smart contracts, and infrastructure. While quantum attacks are difficult to intercept transactions instantly, they can target static targets, such as cracking high-value accounts within days or even breaking core contracts within hours, threatening the security of stablecoins and cross-chain assets.
5. Although post-quantum cryptography has preliminary solutions, a full migration will take years, involving protocol upgrades and user behavior changes. For the entire crypto market, quantum risks are imminent, and accelerating the deployment of quantum-resistant technologies will become a key task in the future.