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In March, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by only 0.2%, which turned out to be below forecasts. Meanwhile, the overall inflation rate increased by 0.9% due to higher energy prices against the backdrop of the war in Иран.
The overall inflation rate last month rose by 0.9%—this increase was driven by a sharp rise in the cost of energy carriers due to the war in Иран.
As expected, inflation in США accelerated last month—mainly due to higher energy prices associated with the conflict in Ближний Восток. At the same time, the core price measure came in below expectations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March increased by 0.9%, according to the Friday report from the Бюро статистики труда. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.9%, and in February the figure rose by 0.3%.
On an annual basis, the CPI index increased by 3.3%—in line with (3.3%) expectations and after 2.4% in February.
The core CPI index, which excludes food and energy prices, showed a more restrained trend: in March it rose by 0.2% versus the forecast of 0.3% and February’s 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI rose by 2.6% versus the forecast of 2.7% and February’s 2.5%.
Before the data release, the price of биткоин (BTC) traded in a narrow range around the $72 000 mark. After the report was published, it rose from $72 346.61 to $72 400.
Futures on US stock indices also showed moderate growth: the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.3%. The yield on 10-year US казначейские облигации США remained at 4.29%.
Against the backdrop of the war in Иран and the subsequent spike in oil prices, in recent weeks markets have revised their expectations: from forecasts of a series of ФРС rate cuts this year, investors have shifted to pricing in one or more rate hikes. Currently, market participants are expecting no changes in the US central bank’s monetary policy.
Before the release of today’s data, the probability that the ФРС would hold its rate at the end of April was estimated at about 99%, and at the mid-June meeting—at 97%, according to CME FedWatch.