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Korean War History
Two years of war + negotiations
- All 5 negotiations were interrupted
- The final core negotiation resulted in a complete ceasefire
- 58 meetings between both sides' representatives
- 722 small meetings
The first time negotiations started
The U.S. turned around and began bombing
The second time, no agreement was reached on prisoners of war
Right after negotiations, fighting resumed at Heartbreak Ridge and the Autumn Offensive
Third negotiation
The U.S. representative said nothing and just sat there
Then, after breaking down, the Summer Offensive began
But everyone started tacitly agreeing to a no-death war
After the fourth negotiation
It was the PLA’s autumn counterattack
Especially the Battle of White Horse Mountain, which crushed the Korean main force
It broke the attempt by Syngman Rhee to hold off U.S. forces
Because Rhee had always hoped
That the U.S. would directly resolve the Korean Peninsula unification issue
During the fifth negotiation, Rhee became hysterical
Using the prisoner release issue as an excuse
Even bypassing the Americans to tear up the treaty directly
Betting his political career on a gamble
The result was the Battle of Kincheon and a surprise attack on the White Tiger Regiment
The Americans were also dragging their feet
Ultimately, they were forced to accept the division of the peninsula
If we draw a comparison:
- Iran and China’s stance are similar
- The U.S. is still the same
- South Korea is like Israel
- United Nations forces are like Middle Eastern sheikhs
- Lebanon and others are roughly comparable to North Korea
- Today’s China is akin to the Soviet Union
What’s very different is that Iran has the Strait of Hormuz
Of course, the historical environment and U.S. motives for action are completely different from back then
So, I estimate this war will
1. Not last more than a year
2. Israel will drag the U.S. military without retreating
3. Ultimately, negotiations will reach a win-win outcome
4. Leave a mess for Middle Eastern sheikhs to clean up