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Primarily positive, a short-term boost to risk appetite:
• Geopolitical factors: The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has been implemented (lasting several days), oil prices have fallen, and risk assets are benefiting. BTC/ETH has shown a short-term squeeze situation, and market sentiment has shifted from panic to cautious optimism.
• Institutional funds: Spot BTC/ETH ETFs have seen consecutive net inflows (more than $443 million on Thursday alone), with BlackRock IBIT leading the charge; Morgan Stanley's new BTC ETF also faces strong demand. Institutional holdings lean long, while derivatives indicate some hedging (bull call options + protective puts).
• Macroeconomic data: March CPI core is moderate (below expectations), supporting rate cut expectations; headline inflation is slightly higher due to energy and geopolitical factors, but the market’s interpretation remains largely positive.