I noticed an interesting trend in the market — the ratio of futures trading volume to spot trading volume on major exchanges has reached approximately 5.1. This is the highest since mid-2023. When futures trading begins to dominate to such an extent, it usually signals increased volatility, because prices are increasingly driven by leverage rather than simply buying and selling.

What does this mean in practical terms? The market becomes more sensitive to liquidation events. Moves can be sharp and substantial in terms of volume, but often short-lived in duration. Apparently, that’s why биткойн has been making such jumps in the past few weeks — up and down, but ultimately staying roughly in the same place. Right now, BTC is trading around $73,000, up 9% over the week.

On-chain data adds interesting context. Visible demand remains negative — down 30,800 BTC over a monthly period. Early in the month, whales sold 66% of their accumulated holdings on the rally, while retail investors were buying the dip. This is a classic bearish signal — big players are stepping out during the rally. Plus, the volume of supply with losses is growing and approaching levels that historically preceded prolonged declines.

Overall, the picture looks like this: futures trading is rising, the spot market is stable, whales are selling, and smaller investors are buying. Technically, it looks like local support rather than a bottom. The market’s sensitivity to liquidations is high, so you need to be more cautious with leverage.