#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Gold, silver, and oil: investment logic undergoes a major change!

In the morning of April 10, Beijing time, spot gold and spot silver fell sharply. Among them, spot gold briefly lost the $4,750 per ounce level, down more than 0.4%; spot silver was at $75.15 per ounce, down more than 0.2%. International oil prices rose again in the morning; Brent crude oil broke above $97 per barrel, up 1.13% intraday; and WTI crude oil futures saw their gains expand to 1%, at $98.858 per barrel.
On April 7, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, fuel prices may continue to rise over the coming months. This view conflicts with a statement made by U.S. President Trump, who previously said that once the war with Iran ends, consumers will immediately see oil prices fall.
The EIA expects that this year the global benchmark Brent crude spot price will average $96 per barrel, higher than the prior forecast of $78.84, and expects retail gasoline and diesel prices to continue rising.
Wang Weimang, an investment manager in the Asset Management Department of Zhonghui Futures, analyzed that the previous “effective blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to surge, and rising energy costs were transmitted to global markets, sharply intensifying inflation pressure. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts—down from around twice at the beginning of the year—have been completely reset to zero, and some are even starting to bet on rate hikes. And once a ceasefire agreement is reached, it means the strait is expected to gradually restore opening; oil prices would tumble on the spot, inflation would show signs of reversing, and the market quickly re-priced the “oil down or rate cut” logic. As gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, its holding opportunity cost drops significantly, and both investment demand and prices have room for upward correction.
Wang Weimang reminds that bearish factors for gold still exist. From a medium- to long-term perspective, regardless of the outcome of negotiations, under the background of the Fed rate-cutting cycle and a weakening of the dollar’s credibility, gold—an excellent asset backed by sovereign credit—will see its price center continue to move upward.
“Nothing has changed in our outlook for gold. We still believe that this year’s gold price will hit new highs,” said Joni Teves, a strategist at UBS. “Any pullback provides an opportunity for investors to build positions.”
UBS expects the average gold price in 2026 to be 5000 dollars per ounce, down 4% from its prior forecast of 5200 dollars per ounce. This adjustment mainly reflects market price changes after gold fell back from its historical high in late January. However, UBS’s average price forecasts for 2027 and 2028 remain unchanged at 4800 dollars per ounce and 4250 dollars per ounce, respectively.
Xia Yingying, head of the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Group at Nanhua Futures, believes that as conflict eases in phases alongside a rebound in rate-cut expectations, gold investment demand is supported. A drop in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields further benefits valuation. From a medium- to long-term strategic outlook, the trend remains bullish; the mid-term direction depends on the pace of the Fed’s monetary policy, and postponing rate cuts does not change the long-term upward direction. In the short term, investors should be alert to the pullback pressure caused by geopolitical developments reversing. Strategically, pullbacks are seen as opportunities to build positions at low levels over the medium to long term; in the short term, investors may consider trading within a range—buy low and sell high.
Regarding the crude oil outlook, Ling Chuanhui, an analyst in energy and chemicals at Nanhua Futures, said that although the market is down sharply, it is still too early to say the qualitative trend has reversed. On the one hand, disagreements between both sides remain large, and the likelihood of reaching a deal in the near term is low; “talk while fighting” could lead to repeated upward pullbacks. On the other hand, Brent crude’s valuation range of 85 dollars per barrel to 90 dollars per barrel is relatively fair. While the market may trade short-term based on expectations of the Strait being navigable again, 85 dollars per barrel still remains a solid bottom in the short term (within 1–2 months).