Guangfa Securities: Maintain Ping An Good Doctor's "Buy" rating with a fair value of HKD 16.46 per share

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Gao Feng Securities released a research report stating that Ping An Good Doctor (01833)’s commercial insurance business is steadily growing, corporate management business is rapidly expanding driven by increases in customer numbers and ARPU, operational efficiency continues to improve, and profitability will further expand. It is expected that from 2026 to 2028, revenue will grow by 14% to 16% year-over-year, with gross profit margins trending upward. Meanwhile, as revenue increases and expenses are controlled, the expense ratio is expected to decline, and adjusted net profit margin is projected to improve from 2026 to 2028. Based on comparable company valuations, applying a 5x PS ratio for 2026 yields a fair value of HKD 16.46 per share. Maintain a “Buy” rating.

Gao Feng Securities’ main points are as follows:

Company Performance

Rapid revenue growth in 2025, continued improvement in profit margins. The company’s revenue in 2025 increased by 13.7% year-over-year to HKD 5.47 billion, gross profit margin rose by 0.7 percentage points to 32.4%, adjusted net profit increased by 161% year-over-year to HKD 414 million, and adjusted net profit margin increased by 4.3 percentage points to 7.6%, continuing to improve.

Actively expanding corporate clients, rapid growth in corporate health management revenue, sustained growth in commercial insurance.

In 2025, the company’s corporate health management revenue grew by 40.6% year-over-year to HKD 1.31B, accounting for 23.88% of total revenue. The GMV of corporate health management business was approximately HKD 3.63 billion; collaborative revenue from commercial insurance increased by 11.00% to HKD 3.3B. The company continues to deepen the medical insurance collaboration model, while jointly developing products combining commercial insurance, health protection mandates, and medical health services, accelerating the expansion of corporate clients, with paid corporate clients exceeding 6,700, an increase of 83.1% year-over-year.

Continuously improving the four-tier service network, AI empowerment shows significant effects.

The company further expands its service network, enhances service quality, and continuously strengthens platform-based, scaled procurement bargaining advantages. “Ping An Circle” integrates resources from chain pharmacies, dental clinics, traditional Chinese medicine clinics, and other healthcare service providers, collaborating with platforms like Meituan and Dingdang Kuaiyao to create a one-stop offline health service loop for corporate clients. Employees of corporate clients can enjoy quick medication delivery, online consultations, health management, and other services through corporate health accounts. Meanwhile, AI empowerment has a notable impact, contributing 4.5% to gross profit; in Q4 2025, the cost per single consultation decreased by 45% year-over-year.

Risk Tips: Customer acquisition on F/B side falls short of expectations; customer retention is below expectations; rising expenses, etc.

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Editor: Shi Lijun