Assessing NOMURA (TSE:9716) Valuation After Strong Multi Year Shareholder Returns

Simply Wall St

Tue, February 17, 2026 at 2:08 PM GMT+9 4 min read

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Why NOMURA is on investors’ radar today

NOMURA (TSE:9716) is drawing attention after its recent share price move, with the stock closing at ¥1,419 and showing a strong total return over the past 3 years.

For investors tracking longer performance, the company’s total return sits at 63.3% over the past year and just over 100% over 5 years, set against relatively modest annual revenue and net income changes.

See our latest analysis for NOMURA.

Recent trading has been relatively steady over shorter periods, and the 28.3% 3 month share price return alongside a 63.3% 1 year total shareholder return suggests momentum has been building rather than fading.

If NOMURA’s move has you looking beyond a single name, it could be a good time to widen your watchlist with our 12 top founder-led companies.

With NOMURA trading at ¥1,419, alongside an indicated discount to both analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates, the key question is whether this represents a genuine buying opportunity or a market that has already priced in future growth.

Price to earnings of 14.3x, is it justified?

On the numbers, NOMURA looks reasonably valued, trading on a P/E of 14.3x, with the share price at ¥1,419 and sitting close to our estimated fair P/E of 14.6x.

The P/E multiple compares the current share price to earnings per share, so you are effectively paying 14.3 times recent earnings for each ¥1 of NOMURA’s profits. For a company in professional services, this is a straightforward way to gauge how the market is weighing its earnings track record against what might come next.

NOMURA’s current P/E is slightly above the wider JP Professional Services industry average of 13.9x, yet a touch below the peer average of 16.1x. This puts it in a middle ground rather than at an extreme. That gap to the peer average suggests the market is not assigning a premium. Our estimated fair P/E of 14.6x sits a little higher than today’s 14.3x level, which is a point the market could potentially gravitate toward if current earnings quality and growth trends remain consistent.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for NOMURA

Result: Price to earnings of 14.3x (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, the recent share price strength sits alongside flat revenue growth and softer net income growth, so any setback in earnings quality could quickly test this valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this NOMURA narrative.

Another take using our DCF model

The P/E of 14.3x suggests NOMURA is roughly in line with its fair ratio, but our DCF model paints a different picture. With the shares at ¥1,419 and our future cash flow estimate at ¥2,483.07, the stock screens as materially undervalued, so which lens do you trust more for the long haul?

Story Continues  

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

9716 Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NOMURA for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 19 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this mix of signals leaves you undecided, now is a good time to check the details yourself and weigh both sides of the story. You can balance the positives against the concerns by reviewing the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If NOMURA has your attention, do not stop here. Use this momentum to broaden your watchlist with other focused ideas that might fit your style.

Target stability first by checking out 48 resilient stocks with low risk scores, so you can see which companies score well on resilience and risk controls.

Hunt for value by scanning screener containing 62 high quality undiscovered gems, where you may find companies with solid fundamentals that many investors are still overlooking.

Prioritise financial strength with solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (35 results), and see which businesses pair healthier balance sheets with fundamentals that could support your long term plans.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include 9716.T.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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