Oil prices rise. Previously, Trump stated that the Iran conflict could escalate in the coming weeks.

Oil prices rise, with former U.S. President Donald Trump previously stating that the United States will carry out “extremely severe” strikes on Iran within the next two to three weeks, fueling ongoing concerns over energy transportation through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures broke above $105 per barrel, while WTI crude futures rose close to $104 per barrel. Trump stated that countries obtaining oil through the strait should take the lead in ensuring the safety of ships, and he claimed that after the war ends, this waterway will “naturally” resume navigation.

This conflict has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off supplies of oil, natural gas, diesel, and other products to the global market, driving up energy prices and raising fears of an inflation crisis. Although crude oil futures prices have declined somewhat in recent days, international benchmark oil prices remain nearly 40% higher than before the war.

“Doctor Dooms” Rubinstein said that Trump has no choice but to escalate and end the Iran conflict.

“The market will now consider the escalation of military actions,” said Vandana Hari, founder of analysis firm Vanda Insights. “He hasn’t provided a clear timetable for ending the war, and crude oil prices have already reflected this initial expectation.”

For energy markets, the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz is the most urgent issue. On Monday, Trump said that if the Strait is not reopened, the U.S. will destroy Iranian infrastructure, including power plants, but on Tuesday, he called on other countries to seize control of the Strait. Among Gulf nations, the UAE has called for the UN to approve measures, including the use of force, to reopen the Strait.

According to Iran’s state television Press TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that Iran and Oman will decide the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s state news agency IRIB quoted a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps saying that the Strait will not reopen due to Trump’s “absurd” actions.

Recommended reading:

• Strait of Hormuz “toll booth” crossing guide: RMB settlement, secret code clearance
• Strait of Hormuz shipping blocked, Saudi oil exports halved in March
• Even if the conflict ends within weeks, normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take time to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged in the war and faces a lengthy repair process. Additionally, U.S. troop increases in the region have also unsettled the market.

“If a temporary ceasefire opens the door to a new round of conflict, Iran is highly unlikely to agree to a ceasefire,” said Will Todman, senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Middle East program. “The Iranian regime believes time is on its side—the longer the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts, the greater the impact on the global economy.”