Less than 24 hours after the US-Iran ceasefire—A new front in Lebanese skies

Less than 24 hours after the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran was announced, Israel launched what it called the “largest-scale” airstrike since this round of conflict began against Lebanon. Within 10 minutes, 50 fighter jets dropped about 160 bombs, striking 100 Hezbollah targets and causing at least 303 deaths and 1,150 injuries. Iran immediately warned: if the ceasefire does not cover Lebanon, it will not hold negotiations with the United States. One ceasefire agreement, two battlefields—each of the three parties has its own calculations.

1. “Eternal Darkness”: Israel’s largest-scale airstrike

On the 8th, the Israel Defense Forces announced that it would carry out the “largest-scale” strike since this conflict began against Hezbollah in Lebanon, codenamed “Eternal Darkness.” Within 10 minutes, 50 fighter jets dropped about 160 bombs on 100 targets, striking Hezbollah command centers and military targets across Beirut, the eastern Beqaa Valley, and southern Lebanon—more than 100 sites in total.

This is the largest-scale assault by Israel in Lebanon since February 28. According to a report from Lebanon’s civil defense department, the airstrikes left at least 254 people dead and 1,165 injured. Data updated by Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health on the 9th shows the death toll has risen to 303, with 1,150 injured. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced April 9 as a national day of mourning, mourning innocent civilians who were killed in Israel’s airstrikes.

In a statement issued through his spokesperson on the 8th, UN Secretary-General António Guterres strongly condemned the large-scale airstrikes that Israel carried out across all of Lebanon that day, noting that the attacks resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths and injuries, including children, and damaged civilian infrastructure.

2. Hezbollah’s counterattack: rockets fly toward northern Israel

In response, Hezbollah in Lebanon launched rockets toward northern Israel on the 9th, and said the attack was a response to Israel’s violation of the relevant ceasefire agreement. This was the first time Hezbollah had attacked Israel since the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire.

A Lebanese parliamentarian affiliated with Hezbollah, Fayez, called for Israel to treat the ceasefire as a prerequisite for any subsequent actions, demanding that Israel withdraw its troops and ensure that people displaced on the Lebanese side can return to their homes. Meanwhile, Israel’s military still said it was “about to airstrike the border crossings between Lebanon and Syria,” suggesting the fighting could spread further.

3. “Ceasefire does not include Lebanon”: US and Israel aligned in their message

Amid international attention, the US and Israel have a highly consistent message: the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. In a statement, Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office said it supports Trump’s decision to impose a two-week ceasefire on Iran, but that “the ceasefire does not include Lebanon.” During a telephone interview on the 8th with the US Public Broadcasting Service, Trump also made clear that Lebanon was not included in the two-week US-Iran ceasefire, and said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon “are another separate conflict.”

However, this position sharply contradicts statements made earlier by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz. On the 8th, Shehbaz announced that Iran, the United States, and both sides’ allies agreed to immediately cease hostilities in all regions, including Lebanon—“effective immediately.”

In his interview on the 9th, Trump also asked Israel to keep its military actions against Lebanon “low-key,” hinting that he hoped Lebanon and Israel would hold direct government-level “talks” in Washington next week. On the 9th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had instructed his government to hold direct talks with the Lebanese government, with the first goal being to disarm Hezbollah, and the second goal being to reach a “historic, sustainable” peace agreement. But a Hezbollah parliamentarian in Lebanon publicly opposed direct talks with Israel, saying Hezbollah is saying “no” to “direct talks.”

4. Iran’s red line: a Lebanon ceasefire as a precondition for negotiations

Iran views this as crossing a red line. In three key points, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba said clearly that Iran will consider all regional “resistance fronts” as one unified whole. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon caused massive civilian casualties—an ongoing war in the region and a war crime that undermines diplomatic efforts—and that the consequences would be borne by the United States.

A source said on the 10th that Iran has informed the Pakistani mediation party that before a ceasefire is achieved in Lebanon, Iran’s delegation will not participate in talks with the United States. A senior Iranian security official said: “If the attacks against Lebanon do not stop, there will be no negotiations.” The official said that since Iran issued warnings on the evening of the 8th, the intensity of Israel’s attacks has declined, and Hezbollah in Lebanon has also dealt Israel heavy blows.

5. Netanyahu’s political predicament: war and justice

As Iran’s front temporarily cooled, pressure at home—judicial and political—facing Netanyahu himself has resurfaced. After the ceasefire is maintained, the trial of his corruption case will resume on Sunday. Observers believe that maintaining a wartime footing not only poses a security issue for Netanyahu, but also affects his political situation.

Wang Jin, a professor at Northwestern University’s Middle East Studies Institute, believes Israel insists on long-term military strikes against Iran, reasoning that as long as Iran’s military threat is eliminated, direct threats to Israel’s periphery—such as Hezbollah and Hamas—will “collapse on their own.” Israel, in practice, does not agree to a ceasefire at this time, but due to pressure from the United States, it has no choice but to accept it.

Summary: At the negotiation table in Islamabad between the US and Iran, neither side has even begun to speak—but things are already exploding overhead in Lebanon. The US says “the ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” the Pakistan side says “the ceasefire includes Lebanon,” and Iran says “if Lebanon does not have a ceasefire, there will be no negotiations.” The rift among the three narratives is even wider than the Strait of Hormuz. On April 11, on the agenda for the Islamabad talks, the word “Lebanon” is destined to be the most difficult controversy to avoid.
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