I've noticed that the cryptocurrency investment market has been quite volatile over the past few days. The trigger was the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, but the hawkish stance indicated caused expectations for rate cuts to significantly retreat.

In response, large holders who had been involved since the early stages of Bitcoin investment seem to have started selling off all at once. Looking at chain data, at least two long-term holders have sold a total of 1,650 BTC (approximately $117 million). One individual, who previously sold 11,000 BTC, added another 650 BTC, and another holder with 5,000 BTC released 1,000 BTC all at once.

As a result, Bitcoin dropped to around $70,600. The latest data shows it’s trading around $72,830, but the decline over these few days has been quite significant. Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin are all similarly down. The overall market seems to be turning bearish.

Looking at the Fed's "dot plot," the median forecast for rate cuts this year is just one time. A month ago, there was over a 60% chance of two to three rate cuts, but now the probability of only one cut has risen to about 80%. This means the likelihood of interest rates remaining high for a longer period has increased, weighing heavily on risk assets overall.

In such an environment, it’s natural to be cautious about cryptocurrency investments. As long as the outlook for monetary tightening continues, it will remain difficult to find good buying opportunities.