Polymarket "The Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" probability drops to 43%, down 12% in 24 hours

Cryptocurrency World News reports that Odaily Seer’s “Prophet” channel monitoring shows that Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31” probability has fallen sharply: down 6% in 1 hour and down 12% in 24 hours.

The event contract rules are as follows: if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) publishes, on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, a figure for the number of transit ships arriving in port for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or greater than 60 based on the 7-day moving average (“ships arriving”), then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, it will be judged as “No.” The daily number of transit ships arriving includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

Pakistani media confirmed today that an Iranian delegation has arrived to hold negotiations. The main negotiations between Iran and the United States will take place tomorrow. The negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan will focus on opening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire.

In addition, the U.S. delegation participating in the U.S.-Iran talks departed for Islamabad, Pakistan, and U.S. Vice President Vance boarded the plane. Before departure, Vance said he looks forward to negotiations regarding the Iran issue, and stated that U.S. President Trump has provided “quite clear guidelines” for the talks.

Odaily Seer’s “Prophet” channel continues to monitor the prediction market; before pricing, it sees changes.