1. Macroeconomic Focus: CPI Data Coming Soon, Market Holds Its Breath $BTC

Tonight (Beijing Time 20:30), the US will release March CPI data, marking the first comprehensive reflection of "Iranian Premium" inflation since the Iran conflict erupted in late February, attracting high market attention.
· Market Expectation: Month-on-month increase of about 0.9%, a significant margin. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it will directly reinforce the Fed's stance to maintain high interest rates, potentially pushing US Treasury yields and the US dollar index higher, and exerting short-term selling pressure on the crypto market.

· Interest Rate Expectations: CME "FedWatch" shows a 98.4% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in April, with only a 1.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike. However, amid rising inflation stickiness expectations, even if no rate hike occurs, the duration of high rates may be extended, further delaying liquidity release.

· Geopolitics: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed to initiate direct negotiations with Lebanon. The US dollar index has fallen for four consecutive days, approaching multi-year lows, while offshore RMB has broken through 6.83, nearing a three-year high. But the Strait of Hormuz remains only partially open, Iran's ceasefire situation remains fragile, and oil price volatility continues to intensify.
Bitunix analysts point out that the current market focus has shifted from geopolitical conflicts to their substantive impact on inflation structure. The market has transitioned from recession fears to pricing in renewed inflation, which challenges the risk assets previously supported by rate cut expectations.
2. Market Review: Bitcoin Fails to Reach 73k USD After Three Attempts
Bitcoin
As of April 10, Bitcoin is quoted at about $71,696, with a 24-hour high of $73,141 and a low of $70,519. Since the ceasefire news on Tuesday, the 73k USD level has suppressed Bitcoin's movement for the third time, with each rally being retraced within hours. Currently, Bitcoin fluctuates repeatedly between 70k and 73k USD.

This week, Bitcoin has gained a total of 7.9%, marking the best weekly performance since the outbreak of the war, and continues to stay above the 50-day moving average, which has turned upward for the first time since the conflict began.

Technical analysis:
· Cup and Handle Pattern: Daily chart shows a cup and handle formation, with neckline between 73,151 and 73,240 USD. A daily close above this range targets approximately 81,720 USD.

· Bearish Divergence Signal: RSI at about 58.44, but forming a "hidden bearish divergence" with price action, usually indicating the downtrend may not be over, and a further consolidation is needed for a rebound.

· Liquidation Map: Liquidity accumulation exists between 72,600 and 74,100 USD, with a potential short-term squeeze zone around 75k USD; below, 71,100 USD is a dense support zone, and losing this level could open space for liquidity to fill at 69,600 USD.
FxPro chief market analyst states: "Before breaking above 75,000 USD, we can't say the market has entered an active bull phase." Galaxy Digital CEO suggests Bitcoin needs to consolidate above 74k USD before breaking through 80k USD to resume an upward trend.
Ethereum
Ethereum is at 2,189 USD, up 6.6% for the week. But technically, it appears weaker than Bitcoin:
· 4-hour bearish alignment, MA7 below MA18, MACD shows a death cross.

· Current support near 2,165 USD, resistance concentrated between 2,220 and 2,250 USD. Falling below 2,165 USD would accelerate a test of lower levels.

· Polymarket forecast data shows a 56% chance that ETH will drop to 1,500 USD by 2026. Open interest in ETH futures has fallen to about 23 billion USD, the lowest since 2024, down about two-thirds from the peak near 70 billion USD in 2025, indicating leverage demand has been significantly squeezed out of the market.
Kuptsikevich believes Ethereum remains in a consolidation range of 2,000 to 2,400 USD, and overall volatility is more like "market noise." Only a clear breakout from this range would signal the start of a new directional trend.
Altcoins
All top ten cryptocurrencies rose this week, the first such occurrence in over a month. However, divergence is evident: Algorand down 11.4%, Aptos down 6.1%, Polkadot down 6.1%. This divergence usually indicates traders are rotating positions rather than large-scale new capital inflows.
3. Market Liquidity: ETF Net Inflows Significantly Increase, but Momentum Remains Weak
ETF Capital Flows (April 9)
· Bitcoin Spot ETFs: Single-day net inflow of $358.1 million, with all 12 products showing no outflows. BlackRock's IBIT net inflow of $269.3 million accounts for 75.2%; Fidelity's FBTC net inflow of $53.3 million.

· Ethereum Spot ETFs: Net inflow of $85.2 million, but with notable internal divergence: BlackRock's ETHA net inflow of $90.9 million, while Fidelity's FETH outflows $21 million.

· Total net inflow for both ETF types exceeds $440 million, reversing two days of net outflows with a strong rebound.
However, trading volume data is not optimistic. On the day of ceasefire news, trading volume was about $121 billion, less than one-third of last October's peak of $394 billion. In the context of the current total crypto market cap of about $2.42 trillion, this level of trading does not reflect strong market participation.
Since the high point in October last year, the crypto asset portfolio has retraced 43%, with about $1.86 trillion in losses yet to be recovered. In contrast, traditional markets have experienced limited retracements, and the loss pressure in crypto markets still requires time to digest.
Futures Market
· Liquidation Situation: Over the past 24 hours, about $341 million was liquidated across the entire network, with long positions liquidated at about $92.14 million and short positions at about $249 million. Bitcoin short liquidations reached $139 million, with long liquidations around $12.89 million, indicating shorts suffered heavier losses.

· Open Interest Surge: After US-Iran ceasefire, open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual contracts increased by over $2 billion each, totaling over $4 billion. CryptoQuant warns that the surge in leveraged long positions indicates bullish confidence, but if momentum reverses, it could lead to higher cascade liquidations.

· Whale Activity: Yesterday, a whale opened a short BTC position with 40x leverage, experienced two rounds of liquidation, and lost over $43.3 million, becoming the largest liquidation address today.
4. Regulatory Developments: US Crypto Regulation Framework Accelerates
· "Clear Act" Progress: On April 8, US Treasury Secretary Yellen urged Congress to pass the "Clear Act" quickly, aiming to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the trillions of dollars in digital assets and resolve jurisdictional ambiguities between SEC and CFTC. Polymarket predicts a 63% chance this bill will be signed into law by 2026.

· SEC "Reg Crypto" Submission to White House: SEC Chair Gensler confirmed that the crypto asset financing framework proposal has been submitted for review by the White House Office of Management and Budget, including a "startup exemption" clause allowing crypto projects to raise funds within four years under specific disclosure requirements.

· Stablecoin Legislation Progress: The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on the "Clarity Act" by the end of April. Negotiators have reached a compromise on stablecoin yield issues, currently circulating among industry stakeholders.

· Hong Kong Stablecoin License: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will announce the first batch of stablecoin licenses today at 17:00, planning to issue 2 to 3 licenses, with 36 applications received so far, aiming for "prudence."
5. Overall Analysis and Outlook
In the short term, CPI data tonight is the most critical variable. If inflation data reinforces sticky expectations, it will further suppress rate cut expectations, prolong high interest rates, and pressure BTC, possibly testing the 69,600 to 70,000 USD range downward. Conversely, if inflation is moderate, it could support a fourth attempt to break above 73k USD. The market is not lacking in direction but in triggers capable of breaking the "inflation and interest rate constraints."
Technically, the cup and handle pattern offers upside reference, with 73,200 USD as a short-term breakout confirmation level; however, the bearish divergence in RSI suggests short-term volatility and the risk of false breakouts.
Medium-term, BIT research believes the market remains cautiously bearish. Despite some technical recovery, large losses have not been fully digested, and capital inflow remains slow amid macro and geopolitical uncertainties. The key level is 70,000 USD—if Bitcoin can close above this level in April, the downside risk may shift to upside potential; until then, cautious waiting is preferable to premature bets on a reversal.
⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset trading involves high risks and volatility. Please fully understand the related risks and make cautious decisions based on your financial situation and risk tolerance.