Is the plunge in oil prices a fake fall? The real drama is still in the Strait of Hormuz

Don’t be fooled by the sharp drop in oil prices; this is more like a downhill ride of "market sentiment" than the end point.
The only key variable is: Strait of Hormuz
It controls about 20% of global oil transportation. If issues arise again, oil prices can quickly shift from "plummeting" to "rocket" mode.
So the current logic is quite interesting:
👉 The market is betting on "ceasefire continuing"
👉 But geopolitical risks have not disappeared
My judgment:
* The war will not escalate fully in the short term (all parties are testing)
* But a complete ceasefire? The probability is not high
How to allocate assets?
👉 Crude oil: Don’t chase the dip, wait for stabilization and buy in batches
👉 Crypto: Continue to be bullish, but watch out for volatility
👉 Gold: Don’t chase highs, hold a core position
One-sentence strategy:
This is not a trend-driven market, but an "event-driven" market.
#加密市场回升