Discussing the strategy for crude oil $CL

Mainly short above 110, the more it rises, the more it shortens
Buy near 80 on the downside, only short-term long positions

The long-term main trend is to short crude oil, as global demand for oil is declining due to the worldwide economic crisis, while oil production is increasing. This is a simple supply and demand imbalance.

I have previously said that the international crude oil market is a futures market, a super casino with 1000x leverage by nature. Besides those involved in the oil business who need the futures market to stabilize price fluctuations and market risks, some people are just naturally gambling. The market only makes money through sharp fluctuations.

Trump and Israel suddenly attacking Iran, especially when everyone believes the US is negotiating with Iran, can be trusted. Trump and his backers are likely to have profited immensely from this conflict.

During the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, oil prices also soared very high, and Russia’s share of the international oil market is much larger than Iran’s, at 11-12%, making it the second largest after Saudi Arabia. Iran, due to US sanctions, only accounts for 3-4% of the global market.

So I’ve always said from the start that this war does not have the basis to push oil prices above $120. In the medium term, it will stay around $80-90. After half a year, once the international market has clarified the situation and panic subsides, prices should fall back below $80.

As for the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, ships can’t go out, Gulf countries’ oil reserves are full, and production will stop—just listen to it. Crude oil cannot keep rising forever; continuous increases would trigger a global financial crisis, which both superpowers, China and the US, would be unwilling to see.