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A trader who has studied technical analysis for 8 years tells you
Japanese candlestick charts, Fibonacci, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Wyckoff, harmonic patterns, order flow, divergence at tops and bottoms, SMC, ICT, VWAP, fixed volume distribution charts— all technical analysis—are all nonsense.
All technical analysis shares similarities, but don’t learn a little and then try to manipulate the market, thinking it will definitely move that way.
The key is not to become obsessed with it; trading should not be driven by obsession.
Manage your positions well, hold on when the trend is in your favor, admit defeat when you’re wrong.
Normal trend: Those with technical skills push the market together with the big players, harvesting unaware retail traders.
Abnormal trend: After the unaware retail traders are wiped out, they harvest those who understand the market “at the right time.”
In 2012, Bitcoin plummeted 50% in a single day, crude oil dropped into negative territory.
Gold’s main rally in January this year, just a few days ago, experienced the biggest crash in 40 years, and there are many more examples— all harvesting those who understand the market “at the right time.”
In these extreme market conditions, those who survive are often the ones without leverage, who dare not bottom-fish or top-tick, and are more cautious.