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How to scientifically live off savings: A survival guide for middle-aged unemployed individuals
With 500k in savings to defend against a wave (giving up crypto, allocating to US stocks + gold + government bonds)
Spending $2,000 a month, the probability of bankruptcy after ten years is 8%;
Witnessing faith (buying all BTC), the probability of bankruptcy after ten years is 60%, but there is also a 5% chance that assets will grow to 1.7 million.
Recently read a paper by Sepp (2026), who proposed a new framework that can accurately calculate bankruptcy probability, fallback amount, and dynamic rebalancing paths under different configurations.
I used his analytical framework to create a dashboard, where everyone can see the survival rate and final wealth distribution of different configuration schemes.
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