🌍 Oil Prices Hovering High and AI's Thunderclap: The Global Markets Stand at a Crossroads

In just one day, the global markets were pulled in two completely different yet interconnected forces. On April 9th, local time, Russian President Putin announced that, due to the upcoming Orthodox Easter, Russian military would implement a ceasefire from 4:00 pm on April 11, 2026, to 12:00 am on April 12. This news was quickly overshadowed by more urgent updates: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains astonishingly low, international oil prices ignore the ceasefire and rebound again; on the same day, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Powell urgently convened major Wall Street bank CEOs, not to discuss interest rates or inflation, but the cybersecurity risks posed by a new AI model from a tech company.

The global financial system is caught between geopolitical shocks, the dilemma of monetary policy, and the thunder of technological upheaval.

1. Strait of Hormuz: Deadlock Under Ceasefire, a New Oil Price Balance

On April 10, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced via social media, “During the temporary ceasefire over the past two days, both sides have recognized that control of the Strait of Hormuz has entered a new phase.” The so-called new phase involves nearly 3,200 ships stranded, with actual navigation still close to a standstill. The Trump administration demands Iran fully open the strait, while Iran insists on using it as a strategic bargaining chip.

Brent crude has fallen from the peak conflict price of $110 per barrel to below $100, but that does not mean the alarm is over. The structure of the oil market has fundamentally changed. In March, U.S. gasoline prices at the pump rose by about $1 per gallon, a shock that will be fully reflected in tonight’s 8:30 pm Beijing time March CPI data. Economists expect March CPI month-over-month growth to possibly hit the largest single-month increase since June 2022. The “Iran premium” is no longer an abstract geopolitical concept but has turned into fluctuating numbers on gas station screens and quietly rising supermarket prices.

2. The Fed’s Dilemma: The Blocked Rate Cut Path

Financial markets have understood this. CME’s “FedWatch” tool shows a 98.4% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in April, with only a 1.6% chance of a rate hike. The market’s focus has long shifted beyond April—only about 30% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, far below early-year expectations of multiple cuts.

This shift in expectations is driven by the ongoing battle between the Fed and inflation. An IMF report released on April 3rd clearly states that, although U.S. inflation is expected to fall back to the 2% target by the first half of 2027, policymakers have little room to cut rates this year. CITIC Securities also notes that current inflation risks are squeezing the Fed’s room to lower rates. More worryingly, if rising oil prices lead to stagflation, the trend of U.S. Treasury yields will continue upward.

Wall Street’s anxiety has spread into the capital markets. Oracle’s stock plunged over 5% intraday, bucking the trend of large tech stocks rallying, driven by concerns over the company’s capital expenditure and financing structure under liquidity tightening and falling borrowing costs. Under the dual pressure of tightening liquidity and weakening financing rates, the once valuation-expansion-driven “Beta rally” has failed.

3. AI’s Cyber Thunderclap: When Wall Street’s Worst Fear Is Not Rate Hikes

However, at a closed-door meeting at the Treasury Department headquarters in Washington, the discussion was unrelated to interest rates. Yellen and Powell convened Wall Street CEOs on only one topic—the latest AI model “Mythos” from Anthropic.

According to reports, Anthropic claims that the Mythos model can identify and exploit vulnerabilities in almost all mainstream operating systems and web browsers. This emergency meeting marks the official recognition by regulators that AI-driven cyberattacks are among the greatest risks facing the financial industry. Previously, Wall Street worried about trading risks from model prediction errors; now, the entire financial infrastructure could become a target for weaponized AI attacks.

If the Strait of Hormuz threatens the physical lifeline of energy supply, Mythos models threaten the very foundation of financial information security. The coincidence of these two events on the same day is no accident—they jointly form the core risk narrative of the 2026 global markets: a double overlay of supply shocks and security shocks.

4. The Shadow of Regulatory Compliance on Political Meme Coins

Beyond serious geopolitical and financial regulatory issues, the crypto asset space is playing another high-risk game. Trump meme coin’s official announcement states that the “Lunch Ranking Event” will be extended by four days, from the original deadline of April 10 to noon on April 14 Eastern Time. The top 297 holders will qualify to attend a lunch at Mar-a-Lago with Trump and 18 celebrities.

However, a huge uncertainty lurks behind this event. The event’s terms show that Trump “may not attend,” and the event could be rescheduled or canceled. Eligible participants might receive a “limited edition TRUMP NFT” as a substitute. The real shadow comes from regulators: three U.S. senators have written to the Trump token issuer, questioning whether they are using the potential attendance of Trump as a “bait” to promote the token.

Meanwhile, on the same day, SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated on social media that the SEC and CFTC are ready to implement the CLARITY Act, awaiting final congressional action. Once passed, this will bring the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework to cryptocurrencies, and meme coins will face stricter scrutiny.

When Putin announced the Easter ceasefire, 3,200 stranded ships congested the Strait of Hormuz; when Trump issued warnings on social media, Powell and Yellen were discussing with Wall Street CEOs how to defend against the next AI-driven attack. These three risk focal points simultaneously escalated overnight, reflecting a global system under multiple fractures and pressures.

High oil prices constrain monetary policy space, tightening policy squeezes market liquidity, and liquidity drought amplifies each risk’s impact. As one Wall Street analyst put it, the core logic of this storm has shifted: the greatest danger is not any single shock but their simultaneous resonance within the same time window.

When the boundary between peace and conflict blurs, when energy costs and interest rate paths entangle, and when AI systems begin to wield weapons— the only certainty the market can be sure of is that certainty itself is becoming increasingly expensive. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战