Crude oil is once again favored as geopolitical risks continue to drive re-pricing in the energy markets. Since the brief pullback following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, both Brent and WTI have slightly rebounded — traders remain unconvinced that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has been fully resolved, and it is prudent to stay cautious.

The core driver here is the risk of supply disruptions. Military actions in the Middle East in late February effectively cut off oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a single chokepoint that handles about one-fifth of global oil trade. Even as headlines about the ceasefire spread, tanker shipping has not fully recovered — empty ships are not entering, and fully loaded vessels are not moving in and out at pre-conflict levels. As long as this situation persists, risk premiums will continue to be embedded in prices.
On the demand side, there is no imminent significant relief. As refinery runs tighten, jet fuel and distillate prices surged in the first quarter of 2026, and downstream pressures are now reflected in airline ticket prices and cruise line costs. Broader consumers are also beginning to feel this pressure.
According to energy analysts, Brent is expected to remain within the $70 to $90 range in the short term, with some forecasts raised to $96 if the impact of the ceasefire persists. WTI is somewhat supported by strong US inventories and the potential release of strategic petroleum reserves, limiting the widening of the spread between the two benchmarks.
The macro interpretation here is straightforward — this is not a demand-driven rebound but panic premiums. This means that if diplomatic progress accelerates, the market could quickly give back gains, but if any sudden developments occur again in the Gulf region, prices could spike sharply. Adjust your positions accordingly.