Given that BTC is currently strongly linked to the U.S. economy, and the U.S. stock market has completely exited the bearish downward trend with signals appearing on the right side, I believe that if the current state of war does not worsen, BTC will find it difficult to fall below 60,000. It’s worth noting that a few days ago, Trump’s statements were so intense that he threatened to destroy Iranian civilization, yet there was no dip below 60,000.

Subjectively, I personally lean more towards a bullish scenario because of the midterm elections in November. He can’t afford to crash the economy and ruin everything six months before the election, so I still hold the previous view: end the war within three months, regardless of the outcome, and aim to win first. The oil from the Strait of Hormuz has little to no real impact on the U.S., and is more about provoking other countries, releasing risks early, and providing more room for future rate cuts.

However, from the perspective of BTC’s cycle, on-chain data still hasn’t bottomed out. This is also what I wanted to highlight in my X post yesterday. In the cycle from 2022 to 2025, on-chain indicators and various technical metrics have not reached the top, but the price has indeed peaked, and the bull market has abruptly ended. So, indicators can be referenced, but they shouldn’t be used as the sole basis for decision-making—price remains the primary factor in the investment market.

Currently, the S&P 500 has fully exited the bearish trend, rising above the moving average cloud. At this point, there’s no reason to bet on a crash caused by war or macroeconomic factors anymore, unless there’s some black swan event in the crypto space. Of course, if the U.S. stock index re-enters a bearish trend in the next few days, then a blue scenario would be a natural progression, and it wouldn’t be too late to turn bearish then.