The shackles of energy inflation have been lifted, but the "ceasefire illusion" will soon be shattered

The most core change in this round of market is: in the first half of the geopolitical conflict, gold is simultaneously under the dual pressure of "energy inflation" and "interest rate hike expectations." In March, COMEX gold plummeted 10.9%, marking the first single-month decline of over 10% since 2013. After the ceasefire news, the sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns, and market expectations for rate cuts shifted from "betting on rate hikes" to about a 65% chance of at least one rate cut before the end of the year. The dollar index weakened, and the downward pressure on gold quickly reversed.

In the short term, the ceasefire agreement is highly fragile. First Financial reports that analysts believe the current rebound is more of a "relief rally," and negotiations still face multiple obstacles. Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens is a key variable. If the ceasefire breaks down and oil prices surge again, gold may repeat the "inflation-interest rate hike" suppression logic of the first half, or even face a new round of selling.

Guohai Securities reviewed that the relationship between the war, oil prices, and gold is not a straight line. Whether gold can break out of a trend-long bull run depends on whether oil prices substantially raise the inflation center and how central banks respond:

· Scenario 1: Oil prices fall back to around $90 but do not fully return to pre-conflict levels → Gold is more likely to stay high and fluctuate within a wide range;
· Scenario 2: Ceasefire implemented + U.S. economy weakens + Federal Reserve signals rate cuts → Gold is expected to switch to a macro easing bull market similar to after 2003;
· Scenario 3: Negotiations break down, the strait remains blocked long-term, and oil prices form a new center above $120 → Gold’s ultimate upside potential is theoretically the largest, but the first half will still be suppressed by liquidity tightening and high real interest rates.

In the medium to long term, the reconstruction of the global political and economic order, de-dollarization process, and persistent central bank gold purchases remain core supports, and the upward trend of precious metal prices remains unchanged.