Enze: After the strong upward move, gold's bullish large candle closes and volatility increases; before the evening data, watch the range.

Yesterday, gold opened at 4719.6 in the early session, then retreated to 4697.5 to consolidate at the low level. During the US session, it surged sharply, touched the high at 4801.5, then met resistance and fell back, closing at 4765.7; on the daily chart, it formed a medium-sized bullish candle with a relatively long upper wick.

In the short term, the 5-minute cycle surged, then pulled back, stabilized, and began repairing; upside momentum is weakening and it has entered high-level consolidation. The medium- to long-term uptrend pattern of rangebound upside remains unchanged.

Fundamentals are mixed between bullish and bearish factors: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support gold prices, and the continuous increase in ETF and futures positions provides funding support. However, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials have pushed back expectations for rate cuts, and the dollar's rebound exerts short-term pressure on gold.

For the evening, focus on U.S. initial jobless claims data and speeches related to inflation. The data may trigger sharp fluctuations in gold. For now, the bullish trend is unchanged, but profit-taking at high levels is intensifying the consolidation—pay attention to whether key support and resistance are broken.

Trading ideas:
Go long around 4780—4800, place a stop-loss above 4806, and look down to around 4730 and 4705.
Go short around 4705—4730, place a stop-loss below 4696, and look up to around 4780-4800-4850.

Reminder:
The above analysis is Enze's personal analysis. The market changes by the minute, and the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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