Is the market's hottest trend in nearly three years likely to continue into April?

Securities Times Reporter Wu Jiaming

“Today, I am handling property transfer procedures for three clients. Last month, my team and I often worked overtime. In my opinion, this year’s ‘small spring’ housing market boom is the most vigorous in the past three years.” On April 1st, as the Shenzhen Luohu District Real Estate Registration Center just opened, Securities Times reporter saw Xiao Li, who was helping clients fill out documents. Xiao Li is an employee at a large real estate agency in Shenzhen, responsible for handling property transfers and related procedures.

The just-passed March ‘small spring’ has delivered a good performance for Shenzhen’s housing market. Data from Le Youjia Research Center shows that in March, Shenzhen’s total online signing volume for first- and second-hand residential properties was 7,898 units, a 117% increase month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly 11 months. Among them, the combined pre-sale and resale online signing for first-hand residential properties totaled 2,827 units, up 118% month-on-month; second-hand residential online signing was 5,071 units, up 117%. From more real-time market data such as viewing and signing, Le Youjia stores’ second-hand viewing volume reached a new high in nearly five years, 17% higher than the peak in October 2024. Second-hand signing volume increased by 244% month-on-month, also at a historic high.

At a new housing project for sale in Luohu District, Securities Times reporter saw a newly signed homebuyer. After quickly closing two preferred second-hand properties she had been viewing, she decisively took action and soon purchased a new property. In her view, deep price adjustments combined with a sustained low-interest-rate environment are re-evaluating the holding costs and long-term value of real estate.

During visits to multiple districts in Shenzhen, Securities Times reporter found that luxury homes and improved-type properties have become hot topics in the new housing market, while low-total-price properties are the main drivers of second-hand transactions. Data from Le Youjia Research Center shows that the proportion of second-hand homes sold below 3 million yuan increased from 21.8% in March last year to 31.5% in March this year. Xiao Xiaoping, director of Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, pointed out that the main groups purchasing low-priced homes are: first-time homebuyers and cautious small-scale investors.

“Around 300,000 yuan or less, second-hand property inquiries and transaction volumes are the highest,” said a senior real estate agent manager in Meilin, Futian District, to Securities Times. “The hotness of Shenzhen’s second-hand market still relies on price-driven factors. Using price to boost volume remains the premise for a market rebound. First-time buyers’ price acceptance is still not high, and both owners and buyers’ expectations need further boosting.”

Many industry insiders believe that Shenzhen’s housing market has already experienced a relatively stable period before the Spring Festival, and the continuation of market heat in April is particularly crucial. If the enthusiasm in Shenzhen and other core cities can be maintained, it will help improve market expectations.

“Since the end of 2025, the strong sales of several luxury projects in Shenzhen Bay and the recent stabilization of second-hand prices in key areas send positive signals to the market, indicating that the core areas have bottomed out. If this state can continue, the entire Shenzhen market is expected to bottom out by 2026,” said Zou Shaowei, senior researcher at Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, in an interview.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, stated that whether housing prices can maintain stability depends on: first, whether second-hand transaction volume can be sustained, especially after low-priced properties are absorbed, whether transactions of mid- and high-priced homes can be activated; second, whether low-priced second-hand transactions can drive replacement demand such as selling old for new or small for large, creating a healthy cycle of consumption; third, whether new homes can achieve comprehensive high quality in product offerings to stimulate customer demand driven by consumption upgrades.

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