Tomorrow night (April 10 at 20:30), the U.S. March CPI data will be released, becoming the most critical macro variable in April. There are two scenarios: if core CPI month-over-month is below 0.3%, the market will treat the “oil price shock” as a one-off disruption, expectations for rate cuts will be marginally repaired, and BTC is expected to test $75,000; if core CPI month-over-month is above 0.3%, then the “higher interest rates for longer” narrative will return, and BTC could fall back to $60,000–$62,000. In terms of the backdrop, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has pushed up oil prices, creating upward pressure on CPI; the Federal Reserve’s dot plot shows that in 2026 there will be only 1 remaining rate cut, and if CPI again comes in above expectations, expectations for rate cuts may be wiped out completely. Strategy founder Michael Saylor believes that Bitcoin may have already bottomed around $60,000 in early February; the bottom is determined by the exhaustion of sellers rather than valuation, and quantum risk is being exaggerated. Will you reduce your position to hedge against risk, or lay a long bet?