Just after a ceasefire, fighting resumes? The Middle East situation has entered a mode of "peace in words, fire in action."

These days, what is the biggest risk of a ceasefire agreement?
It's not the other side breaking the agreement, but everyone defaulting to the assumption that they will break it.
On the first day of the ceasefire taking effect on April 8, Israel launched a major attack, conducting the largest airstrike against Hezbollah in Lebanon. This move is a textbook example of "ceasefire while continuing to exert pressure."
Iran was directly angered: this isn't a ceasefire, it's "pause the insults, continue the actions."
So the situation escalated—closing the Strait of Hormuz.
This is essentially telling the world: don’t just watch the battlefield, the real control is in energy.
Many people haven't realized that this is more dangerous than missiles.
Because missiles affect local areas, but oil prices impact the entire globe.
At the same time, Iran is sending a deterrence signal: preparing to target Israeli military sites. Pay attention to the keyword—“preparing.” This is a "threat but not yet executed" in the game, leaving room for negotiation.
But the problem is: trust has already collapsed.
The originally planned talks on the 11th are now directly in question. Iran clearly stated: three out of ten ceasefire terms have been violated, shaking the foundation of negotiations.
Simply put:
Rules are broken → trust is zero → negotiations become a show.
Will there be a full-scale outbreak next?
In the short term, unlikely. The reason is simple:
All parties are "risk controlling," not "seeking victory or defeat."
But this doesn't mean safety; in fact, it’s more dangerous—
because this state is called: low-intensity ongoing conflict.
How does the market interpret this?
One sentence: don’t see “ceasefire” as good news.
Risk assets rebounding are likely just "short covering," not the start of a new bull market.
There are two real indicators:
👉 Whether the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
👉 Whether there is a substantial military escalation
If both happen simultaneously, the market won't just be volatile; it will be a "re-pricing."
So don’t be fooled by headlines; the Middle East is not currently peaceful, nor is it at war—
it’s the most difficult state to trade in: uncertainty. #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故