#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4.9 Gold prices rebound after sharp rise and fall or remain volatile! Intraday gold analysis and reference

What recent news factors are influencing gold and crude oil trends? How should the market interpret the bullish and bearish outlooks for the near future?

On Thursday (Beijing time, April 9), during the Asian session, spot gold trades around $4713 per ounce, with potential testing of the $4700 level. Gold prices surged above $4850 per ounce on Wednesday but then sharply retreated. On the first day of the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, the IDF launched its largest airstrike since the conflict with Hezbollah began. Iran claimed this violated the ceasefire agreement, again closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to take deterrent action against Israeli military targets. As a result, US crude oil rebounded over 2.5% after touching around $91 per barrel, trading near $96.80 per barrel, with potential for further upward movement intraday. Analysts suggest that short-term gold may remain volatile, while medium to long-term, geopolitical uncertainties and potential rate cuts still give gold investment value. Investors should closely monitor US inflation data this week and developments in US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan.

From a broader macro perspective, the current development of the Middle East situation actually creates a relatively favorable environment for gold. Not because of the ceasefire itself, but because the ceasefire is too fragile, and the prospects for peace are too uncertain. The current dilemma in the gold market largely stems from the high uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. According to the Federal Reserve March meeting minutes released on Wednesday, disagreements among policymakers are intensifying, and this situation has a complex and dual impact on gold. The minutes show that more Fed officials believe that, considering Iran-related inflation shocks, rate hikes may be necessary to address inflation exceeding the 2% target. Some participants explicitly stated that future rate decisions should include both easing and tightening options in their statements, reflecting that if inflation remains above target, raising the federal funds rate range could be appropriate.

Looking ahead to the next few trading days, another key catalyst for gold will be the release of US inflation data. The core inflation indicators, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and Consumer Price Index, will be released later this week. These data are crucial because they will provide the latest basis for the Fed's rate decisions. If inflation remains stubborn or even accelerates, the likelihood of rate hikes mentioned in the minutes will become more realistic, which is not good news for gold. Conversely, signs of cooling inflation could revive market expectations for Fed rate cuts, providing upward momentum for gold prices. Based on the performance of inflation-protected bonds, the market currently expects an average annual inflation rate of about 2.3% over the next decade, which, while above the Fed's target, is not out of control. The key is that the development of the Middle East situation will largely determine how much actual inflation deviates from this expectation. It is worth noting that even if a ceasefire holds, it will take time for falling oil prices to pass through to consumer prices. Moreover, given the fragility of the current ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz could again become a geopolitical flashpoint at any time. In this context, investors will remain highly alert to inflation prospects, and this cautious sentiment will itself support the safe-haven demand for gold.

4.9 Gold Market Trend Analysis:

Technical analysis of gold: Yesterday, gold experienced a rollercoaster, with prices rising continuously then gradually losing momentum. Recently, the upward surge has repeatedly reversed, and the market has officially shifted from a small bullish trend to a short-term correction cycle. The bulls and bears are increasingly competing, and today’s gold price is expected to continue consolidating within a range, focusing on key support and resistance levels. The daily chart closed with a long upper shadow and a bearish candle. Overall, gold showed a rebound and fall pattern on Wednesday, closing lower, unable to sustain the strong early rally. From the moving averages, the market shows mixed signals: the 5-day moving average is turning downward, the 10-day remains upward, while the 20- and 30-day moving averages continue to decline. This technical pattern generally indicates that the short-term trend may continue to oscillate without forming a clear directional trend.

Currently, the rebound in daily prices is not very strong, with support around 4700. The short-term moving averages are beginning to shift from divergence upward to divergence downward, suggesting the daily trend may continue to fluctuate within a broad range, with support near 4600-4610. On the hourly chart, after continuous low-level oscillations, the technical pattern is gradually adjusting, with short-term moving averages beginning to diverge upward, indicating some rebound potential. Resistance is seen at 4780-4800. If prices cannot re-establish above 4800, the bullish momentum may form a head-and-shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. Support below is at 4600. Without a clear ceasefire, it’s unlikely for gold to surge significantly; if conflicts escalate further, gold could break below 4600 again. Even if a ceasefire is temporarily maintained, it’s unlikely to end hostilities immediately. In the morning, focus on resistance at 4800; for now, consider shorting on rebounds. Overall, for today’s short-term trading, Jin Shengfu recommends mainly shorting on rebounds and buying on dips, with key levels at 4780-4800 resistance and 4700-4650 support. Traders should manage positions carefully, set strict stop-losses, and avoid fighting the market. Real-time levels will be based on intraday data. Welcome to join us for live analysis and group updates.

4.9 Gold Trading Strategy Reference:

Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short on rebounds near 4780-4800 in batches (buy dips), with 2/10 position size, stop-loss at 4820, target around 4730-4700, and if broken, look toward 4650; (timing is limited, further details shared internally with DingTalk real trading students)

Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy on dips near 4650-4660 in batches (buy rises), with 2/10 position size, stop-loss at 4630, target around 4700-4730, and if broken, look toward 4750; (timing is limited, further details shared internally with DingTalk real trading students)

Risk warning: All operations should strictly control position sizes and set stop-losses to prevent extreme market moves caused by unexpected events.