#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Review of the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Staying up late to trade is less effective than planning ahead.

1. Core Tone: Hawkish shift, policy "dual-direction openness"

Last night (early April 9), the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting.

• Current interest rate: Maintained at 3.50%–3.75%.

• Major change: For the first time, explicitly reintroduced "rate hikes" as a policy option.

• Keywords: Inflation risks > urgency to cut rates; high interest rates for longer; no ruling out further rate hikes.

2. Key points of the minutes (at a glance)

1. Inflation is more stubborn, returning to 2% will take longer
◦ Most officials believe inflation is falling much more slowly than expected.
◦ Middle East conflict, high oil prices → significant rise in inflation risk.
◦ Concern about long-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored, more sensitive to energy prices.

2. Policy stance shifts to "dual-direction": can raise or cut
◦ Several officials advocate: statements should clearly state "if inflation rebounds, rate hikes are possible."
◦ No longer just discussing "timing of rate cuts," but balancing inflation and employment risks:
◦ Hawkish (majority): more worried about inflation resurgence → prefer to keep high rates longer, possibly hike again.
◦ Dovish (minority): more worried about employment decline and war dragging down the economy → favor early rate cuts.

3. Economic and employment outlook: cautious and somewhat bearish
◦ Economic expansion remains steady but with concerns.
◦ Employment risks skew downward: prolonged conflict could impact the job market.
◦ Unemployment rate expected to remain stable but with rising downside risks.

4. Rate cut timetable: significantly delayed
◦ No rate cuts expected in June (CME probability has fallen to about 2%).
◦ Market expectation: earliest in September, at most one rate cut (25 basis points) this year.
◦ Dot plot suggests very slow pace of rate cuts in 2026–2027.

3. Impact on major asset classes (short-term)
• US dollar: strengthening, with some volatility.
• US Treasury yields: short-term yields rising, curve steepening.
• US stocks: growth/high-valuation stocks under pressure; value/financials relatively resilient.
• Gold: short-term pressure (high rates suppress prices), but geopolitical safe-haven support remains.
• Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency: negative (rising opportunity cost, risk appetite cooling).
• Crude oil: the minutes are hawkish, but geopolitics and ceasefire developments are more influential.

4. One-sentence summary
The Fed has shifted from "waiting to cut rates" to "preventing inflation rebound," maintaining high rates longer, delaying rate cuts significantly this year, and even considering further hikes, clearly turning more hawkish overall.