I have seen several forecasts circulating about gold lately, and I must say that the overall picture that emerges is quite interesting. Almost all major financial institutions agree on one thing: gold continues to rise, albeit at different rates.

For 2026, where we are now, estimates range around $2,800 to $3,100. Goldman Sachs, UBS, BofA, JPMorgan, and Citi Research all have projections focused around $2,700 to $2,850. InvestingHaven, on the other hand, is more bullish, with a target of $3,100. Interestingly, these forecasts for gold in 10 years, around 2030, suggest a possible peak near $5,000.

But what really drives the price of gold? According to the analysis I read, the main factor is not supply and demand as many believe, but rather inflation expectations. Gold shines in inflationary environments, which is why its correlation with the TIP ETF is so strong. Then there are monetary dynamics—the monetary base M2 and the consumer price index continue to grow, supporting an upward trend.

Looking at long-term charts, the pattern is impressive: after a decade-long consolidation between 2013 and 2023, gold completed a cup and handle formation that is traditionally bullish. And it’s not just in dollars—gold has started setting new all-time highs in practically all global currencies since the beginning of 2024.

There are also secondary factors to consider: the euro is in a bullish phase, Treasury yields are not expected to rise further with upcoming rate cuts, creating a favorable environment. The only cautious note comes from the net short positions of commercial traders in the futures market, which remain very high and could limit a rapid acceleration.

The emerging thesis is that of a "weak" bullish market for gold—not an immediate explosion, but a steady rise over the next few years. The forecasts for gold in 10 years suggest that the real accelerated move might come later in the decade.

An interesting detail: InvestingHaven’s forecast for 2021 did not materialize, but for the past five consecutive years, their projections have been surprisingly accurate. In 2024, they predicted $2,200–$2,555, and the target was reached by August.

Regarding silver, it seems poised to begin its most aggressive bullish phase. The gold/silver ratio over 50 years suggests that the gray metal tends to react to the upside in a later phase of the gold bull market, with a potential target around $50.

So, if someone asks me where gold will go in the coming years, the answer is: upward, but not in a linear fashion. There will be moments of weakness, but the dominant trend remains bullish as long as gold does not fall and stay below $1,770—an event that analysts consider unlikely.