#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Global Oil Market Core Tracking Logic: Geopolitical Negotiation Implementation > Strait Navigation Actual Progress > OPEC+ Actual Production Increase > IEA/EIA Supply-and-Demand Data Verification. Organized by “timeline + core events + observation points + oil price impact,” so you can track and compare directly.

I. Urgent Geopolitical Events (Highest Priority, No Fixed Schedule; Need Real-Time Monitoring)

1. US-Iran ceasefire negotiations (begins April 10; two-week window)

◦ Observation points: whether a comprehensive Strait navigation agreement is reached, Iran’s restrictive clauses on oil tanker passage, and the implementation details of the ceasefire by both sides

◦ Oil price impact: if reached → oil prices fall back to $80-$95; if talks collapse / the agreement is torn up → oil prices surge rapidly to 120+; spot premiums widen again

2. Strait of Hormuz navigation status in practice

◦ Observation points: the number of oil tankers transiting per day (restoring to more than 80% of pre-conflict levels is key), crude oil loading volumes by Gulf oil-producing countries, and whether there is any new geopolitical friction

◦ Oil price impact: when the number of daily transiting ships exceeds 180 (200+ before the conflict) → spot supply tightness eases, and the spread between futures and spot prices narrows

II. Key Fixed Milestones in April

1. April 12 domestic refined oil price adjustment window

◦ Observation points: the adjustment magnitude (expected to be a significant reduction of more than 500 yuan/ton), and whether the “floor price” is triggered (domestically not adjusted yet)

◦ Related impact: reflects the short-term trend in international oil prices; changes in domestic fuel costs inversely affect local demand

2. April 15 IEA releases the April global oil market report

◦ Observation points: the revised value for 2026 demand growth, changes in global crude oil inventories, and updated actual data on supply disruptions in the Middle East

3. April 20 EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook

◦ Observation points: forecast for U.S. crude oil production (currently 13.6 million barrels/day; whether revised upward to 13.8+), changes in U.S. oil inventories, and refinery operating rates