Homebuyer mortgage demand drops annually for the first time in over a year, as war fuels uncertainty

Prospective buyers view the backyard of a home during an open house in Seattle, Washington, US, on Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026.

David Ryder | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Mortgage rates finally ticked a tiny bit lower last week, but not enough to help the ailing mortgage market. Economic uncertainty, fueled by the Iran war, is keeping rates elevated and homebuyers on the fence. As a result, total mortgage application volume fell 0.8% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 6.51% from 6.57%, with points decreasing to 0.61 from 0.65, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 1% for the week but were 7% lower than the same week one year ago. That was the first year-over-year decline since January 2025.

“However, certain loan types and geographic segments are faring better than others because of lower rates on ARM and FHA loans as well as growing housing inventory in some local markets,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist in a release. “Applications for FHA purchase applications were up 5 percent over the week, supported by the FHA mortgage rate being about 30 basis points lower than the conventional mortgage rate.”

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Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 3% for the week and were 4% lower than the same week one year ago. That was also the first year-over-year decline for refinances since January 2025.

“Many potential refinance borrowers have been frozen out by the sharp increase over the past month. The pace of refinance applications was at its lowest level since December 2025,” said Kan.

Mortgage rates have been essentially flat to start this week but are likely to move lower Wednesday, after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire Tuesday night. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates loosely follow, fell sharply on the news.

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