#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Thrilling 11 hours! Trump “waves the baton,” with financial markets in turmoil!

Over the past 11 hours, the US-Iran war went from “ready to ignite” to an emergency stop, and the financial markets have since swung sharply: US stocks turned from down to up, oil prices surged and then plunged again.
Let’s sort out the link between events related to the US-Iran conflict over the past half day and how the financial markets performed: According to reports from media including CCTV News, Trump repeatedly threatened Iran, saying that the deadline to reach a ceasefire agreement was 20:00 on April 7 Eastern Time (8:00 on April 8 Beijing Time); otherwise, the entire country of Iran could be completely wiped out overnight.
On Tuesday, at 8:00 PM Beijing time, he posted a threat to Iran on social media again, saying, “Tonight, a civilization will completely perish, never to return.” Affected by this news, US stocks in Tuesday’s early trading clearly fell: the Nasdaq once dropped by more than 1.7%, and the S&P 500 index’s decline also once reached 1.1%, while international oil prices kept climbing. In US afternoon trading, as US Vice President Vance said that the military objectives had been completed, and sources said that US-Iran talks had made a small amount of progress, oil prices eased somewhat. The decisive moment came as US stocks neared the close: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz, in a social media post, said that he had asked Trump to extend the “final deadline” by two weeks, and also asked Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks to show goodwill. White House press secretary Leavitt said Trump has received the plan proposed by Pakistan and will respond. A senior Iranian official said Iran is actively considering Pakistan’s “ceasefire for two weeks” request. In the final minute, the S&P and Nasdaq managed a risky turn from falling to rising, with both achieving a “five-day winning streak.” As of the close, the S&P 500 index rose 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%, and both have extended their winning streak to 5 trading days.
After the US stock market closed, Trump again issued a major statement at 6:30 AM on Wednesday Beijing time, saying that he agreed to pause bombing and attacks on Iran within two weeks, provided that Iran agrees to fully, immediately, and safely open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also said it accepted the ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan. On the back of this news, all three US stock index futures rose by nearly 2% after hours, with the Nasdaq futures’ gain once widening to nearly 3%. International oil prices, meanwhile, fell sharply in response: Brent crude futures and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures once dropped by about 16%; as of the time of writing, both losses had narrowed slightly. Precious metals rose in early trading: international spot gold surged sharply, at one point touching $4,857.46 per ounce during the day; as of the time of writing, the gain narrowed slightly to 2.34%, at $4,816.09 per ounce. Spot silver rose 4.2% to $76.02 per ounce.
Overall, it’s hard not to think of Trump’s “TACO playbook.” No wonder—against the backdrop of Iran’s hardline standoff and steadily falling approval ratings in polls, TACO seems to be Trump’s only option.
The “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out), meaning “Trump always backs down at the last moment,” describes the mindset of Wall Street traders: whenever “certain events” drive the financial markets down too hard, Trump retreats—such as the multiple points in time Trump previously sparked trade wars, threatened to seize Greenland, criticized the independence of the Federal Reserve, and so on.
Hormuz remains the focus Even though the two-week ceasefire is underway, the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global oil supply must pass) remains the focal point of the dispute. Trump emphasized that “fully, immediately, and safely opening the Strait of Hormuz” is a prerequisite for the ceasefire. Iran, for its part, stressed the relevant points in its “10-point plan” submitted to the United States: coordinating with Iran’s armed forces to control passage through the Strait of Hormuz; establishing a safe transit protocol in the Strait of Hormuz to ensure Iran has the dominant position.
Facet’s Chief Investment Officer Tom Graff commented that investors should expect oil prices to remain above pre-war levels for the long term, and that the increase would be “quite significant.” He viewed Iran’s move to block the strait as a form of “negotiation leverage.” He noted that even if Iran might want to reopen the strait on its own terms rather than on the United States’ terms, permanently closing the strait is not beneficial to any party, including Iran itself. Graff said he does not believe that closing the strait for months—or even longer—is sustainable, and that at some point in time the situation will turn.
Uncertainty remains high
Sameer Samana, global head of equities and real assets research at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said: “President Trump’s negotiation strategy is to maximize the creation of uncertainty, which runs counter to the market’s tendency to dislike uncertainty. “We think this strategy will continue throughout his entire presidential term, because he needs to negotiate and renegotiate various situations and agreements, and the market would be wise to keep that in mind.” He added.
Doug Peta of BCA Research, a market research firm, also said: “Because new developments keep emerging, the risk of new market volatility events hitting the stock market makes it hard for traders to stay out of it. “Uncertainty is extremely high, because the United States may exit the conflict within the time it takes to forward a Truth Social post, or it may escalate the conflict significantly, and the differences in outcomes are so large.” He added.