Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire alleviates supply shocks but does not change structural pressures; policy disagreements widen, and the market enters the "uncertainty premium-driven" phase.

Mars Finance reports that on April 8, the market underwent a dramatic switch in a short period of time—from “an all-out upgrade of risk” to a “two-week ceasefire window.” On the surface, Iran’s acceptance of a ceasefire and renewed expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could restart have led to a marginal easing of the extreme shock to energy supply; however, from the decision-making process, this shift was not based on the conflict ending, but rather on temporary concessions under political pressure, the need to stabilize financial markets, and bargaining dynamics, meaning that supply-side risk is only being postponed rather than resolved. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s internal discussions still emphasize the risks of inflation rising and employment weakening, indicating that the policy environment remains in a “passive response to supply shocks” state.

From the perspective of policy and international reactions, structural disagreements are widening. On the one hand, there is a consensus among Federal Reserve officials that an energy shock will push inflation higher, and the logic for keeping interest rates at elevated levels has not been shaken; on the other hand, Japan’s wages have hit the highest level in decades, reinforcing its expectations of further rate hikes, which means the world’s major economies are tightening liquidity in tandem. This “non-coordinated tightening,” combined with geopolitical uncertainty, prevents the market from establishing a stable interest-rate expectation anchor. Meanwhile, Russia’s energy facilities were attacked, and Iran still retains negotiating leverage to keep the strait closed, indicating that the energy supply chain remains highly fragile and that any incident could once again trigger price increases.