4.8: Bitcoin's downward trend will not change, and details indicate this will continue in this direction

Bitcoin experienced a wave of continuous upward movement after early this morning. The price bottomed out near $67,700 at 11 PM yesterday, then steadily advanced, reaching a high of $72,700 by 7 AM today, a $5,000 surge. This rapid movement resulted in a quick shift between short and long positions. This reversal has confused many crypto enthusiasts: will the upward climb continue or will the bear market persist? Here, I will share my humble opinion.

First, we need to understand that the recent rise after early this morning was mainly driven by market euphoria caused by the cooling of US-Iran negotiations. Assets with financial attributes saw a significant rebound, which is a typical emotional reaction. During the same period, crude oil prices fell from $116 at 11 PM yesterday to a low of $90 at 7 AM today. Looking at the actions before the cooling, Bitcoin still appears to be in the middle of a downtrend within a bear market. The main trend of the bear market will not change due to any sudden external events in the crypto space. Additionally, details show that after 9:00 PM on April 5, the price rose from the support level of $67,000, reaching just above $70k, but then, after early this morning, it again experienced selling pressure, with the price bottoming at $67,700 before reversing. This indicates that the market’s selling activity has not yet completed. The bulls are weak and unable to hold onto their gains. Buying momentum is inconsistent, and after a rapid rise, the price closed lower. Based on these observations, I believe that after such an emotional surge, the market is likely to revert to near the pre-rally levels, continuing the bearish trend. The main reason is that before the rapid rise, the price was already in a short-term rally followed by a sell-off, and any slight enthusiasm is quickly extinguished by the bears.

In summary, regarding the upcoming market trend, I judge that the price remains in a weak bullish state, with a clear bearish main trend. There is little basis for a significant upward move. Therefore, I expect the price to complete a high-level consolidation and then resume selling pressure. For this type of market behavior, I recommend participating in short positions at high levels. Specifically, I suggest entering short positions in the range of 71,700 to 72,700 USD, with a stop-loss at 74,000 USD, and target levels of 69,000 and 68,000 USD. #比特币