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April 8 Morning Analysis:
Rising sharply then pulling back
Main direction: The medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged, short-term 15-minute overbought conditions are pulling back, mainly rebounding high and shorting on dips for support
High short (primary strategy, betting on 15-minute overbought correction)
Entry: 2230–2250 in batches (15-minute Bollinger upper band resistance + intraday high-pressure zone, stagnation and then short)
Target: 2180–2160 (15-minute / 1-hour Bollinger middle band support + pullback confirmation zone), break below to 2120
Stop loss: 2280 (break above intraday high, correction structure invalidated, strict stop loss)
Low long (secondary strategy, playing rebounds on support for a second surge)
Entry: 2160–2180 stabilize and stop falling, then go long (strong support zone, only trade on pullback confirmation)
Target: 2220–2250 (quick entry and exit, avoid holding positions too long)
Stop loss: 2120 (break below support platform, bullish structure invalidated, abandon long positions)
Technical Logic
1. 15-minute level
Price surges then quickly pulls back, RSI drops from overbought zone, volume clearly diminishes, profit-taking after overbought signals a clear correction, short-term rebound weak, further decline needed.
Bollinger Bands: Price pulls back from upper band, middle band acts as strong support, current pullback from upper band is normal after overbought, no trend reversal signals.
2. 1-hour level (mid-term trend)
Price runs strongly along the upper Bollinger band, MACD shows a green cross with high green bars, Bollinger bands diverge upward, mid-term bullish trend fully established, this 15-minute correction is a healthy pullback in an upward process, does not change the mid-term upward pattern.
3. Volume structure
Volume weakens at the 15-minute level, a normal volume contraction after an increase, overall funds are well supported, no signs of fund outflow, and there is potential for a second surge after the pullback.
Macro Rhythm
• Ceasefire in Iran and Israel has been implemented, risks eliminated, the medium-term bullish logic remains unchanged, early morning surge followed by 15-minute overbought correction is normal profit-taking.
• 2120 is the short-term support/resistance dividing line; as long as it holds, all longs are on dips, avoid heavy positions; 2280 is the resistance dividing line; a break above continues the rally, otherwise, expect further correction.