Analysis of the Major and Minor Trends of Big Bitcoin Movements!

1. Major Level Core: Weekly Chart Not Yet Concluded, Daily Double Central Zone Is Key
Using Chan Theory to analyze the market, always follow the core logic of determining the direction at the major level and finding buy points at the minor level, first anchoring on the most essential weekly and daily structures.

1. Weekly Level: One stroke has not yet ended; this is the overall trend framework. Nested within are the daily trend types, not just a single segment structure.
2. Daily Level: Currently constructing the second same-level central zone, not the market's misconception that the "weekly rebound has ended."
The internal structure of the daily chart is clear: one downward stroke → central zone consolidation → another downward stroke, and these two downward strokes do not form divergence. This can be visually verified with the MACD indicator: yellow and white lines making new lows, volume increasing simultaneously, typical of consolidation without divergence in decline.

Based on this, the daily chart will only have two possible future movements: ① rebound then make new lows; ② construct a second daily central zone. From the probability perspective of Chan Theory structure, constructing a second central zone is more likely.

The subsequent daily central zone structure is most likely: one upward stroke → one downward stroke → another upward stroke, slightly surpassing the previous high, then moving down to test new lows. The key validation point is whether the downward move breaking the 60k level is accompanied by divergence with the previous decline.

If a double central zone divergence trend forms: the weekly stroke will most likely end, followed by a weekly rebound, with support anchored around 58K-56K (a strong support level at the same level), with the initial rebound target near 100K.
If divergence does not form: the central zone will continue oscillating, waiting for a breakout.

2. Intermediate Level Connection: 4-Hour Rhythm, 73K Strong Resistance and 78K Resonance Pressure
After clarifying the major framework, connect to the 4-hour intermediate level, dissecting the specific upward rhythm and resistance levels, which are the core operational anchors moving forward.

1. Relationship between 4-hour and daily: The daily is currently oscillating within a central zone, corresponding to the 4-hour trend type. The daily rebound has completed its internal decline; the current rebound structure is a 4-hour 1-2-3 pattern, but the 4-hour internal structure is consolidation with divergence.
2. Core rhythm: First, a 4-hour level pullback, then a continued upward break to new highs, with a short-term target near 73K.
This is the key resistance: a trend line drawn connecting recent highs, landing around 73K. The previous rebound target of 78K was not reached; this rebound space is compressed, making 73K a strong resistance zone. After a pullback, there will be a second attack opportunity.
3. 78K Ultimate Resistance: Why does it tend to "stop abruptly" at 78K?
The core reason is the double resonance of trend line + Fibonacci: - Trend line: after breaking 73K, market triggers bullish sentiment; - Fibonacci: the previous decline's rebound touched the 0.382 level (above 74K) and fell back, so this rebound is likely testing the 0.5 Fibonacci level, i.e., 78K.

78K is a typical trap zone for bullish temptations: breaking through will attract many long entries, then likely a sharp drop back, which is the most common "harvesting rhythm" in a bear market oscillation. This is also the main reason not to blindly chase highs later.

3. Small Level Details: 30-Minute Gap Filling, The True Buy Point Is After the Second Buy
Zooming into the 30-minute level, dissecting the specific gap filling rhythm and buy point logic, which is crucial for practical trading.

1. Gap core: There is a clear gap on the chart, and filling the gap is an essential process at the 30-minute level, roughly around 67K.
2. 30-minute structure: Future movements will follow a "Down-Up-Down" standard pattern, corresponding to a 4-hour stroke pullback. The core purpose is to fill the gap near 67K and ultimately return within the daily central zone.
3. Clear buy point: It is definitely not the current moment; wait for both conditions to be met:
① Fill the 67K gap, completing the 30-minute down-up-down structure;
② Not breaking the 2nd buy position, and capturing the second buy within the 4-hour central zone.

Here, a key operational principle is emphasized: when a major level shows a shorting point, do not buy at smaller levels. If a 30-minute chart shows a third buy turning into a sell point, the subsequent movement is likely "retest → rebound without breaking new highs → further decline," making short-term intra-day trading highly inefficient and prone to shakeouts.

4. Market Scenario Summary and Trading Suggestions
High-Probability Core Scenario:
73K strong resistance → 4-hour pullback → second attack breaking 73K → testing 78K resonance resistance → encountering resistance and falling back → filling the 67K gap → building a 4-hour second buy → then waiting for a major level breakout.

Low-Probability Scenario:
4-hour directly attacking 73K then turning downward without breaking through 73K resistance. However, from the perspective of Chan Theory's structural integrity, the trend line must be broken first to trigger a "bull trap," providing room for subsequent decline. Therefore, this scenario has a lower probability.

Operational Core Advice:
1. Abandon short-term 30-minute intraday trading: high volatility, low tolerance, easily caught in third buy-to-sell traps;
2. Focus on the 4-hour second buy: wait for gap filling and no break below the second buy level before positioning within the 4-hour central zone for higher success rate;
3. Be cautious around 78K: do not chase highs; if a reversal pattern or divergence signals appear near 78K during rebound, consider light short positions with strict stop-loss.

Finally, I want to say: The Chan Theory system is not something you can master just by short-term chart watching. I have studied it for nearly 6 years before a mentor revealed the core logic. Most market participants are stuck in "focusing on lines without understanding structure, chasing highs and selling lows." Those who can truly understand the structure logic in this article are already ahead of most people. The subsequent trend will verify the structure; we only trade within probabilities, prioritizing stability. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $BTC