Imeda has reached a mutual temporary ceasefire (for two weeks). Both sides will finalize a long-term peace agreement within two weeks, leading to a phased easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

1. Short-term
As risk-averse buying cools off, previous geopolitical risk premia are taken off the table, and the market mainly trades in a range at high levels.
2. Medium-term
The ceasefire is a temporary agreement; negotiations and sentiment will dominate the trend. Positive/negative news will bring sharp volatility.
If negotiations go smoothly: geopolitical risk premia will gradually unwind, returning to macro factors (Federal Reserve rate cuts) + industry fundamentals.
If negotiations break down: geopolitical risk will resume, and BTC/ETH will surge again.
3. Long-term
The marginal impact of geopolitics weakens, and the trend returns to core logic such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, ETF capital flows, and the halving cycle.
When the ceasefire and expectations of rate cuts are realized, it will create room for medium- and long-term upside in BTC/ETH.
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