April 7 Evening Market Analysis: The countdown to Trump's final ultimatum is underway. What will the market use to continue demonstrating resilience?

On the second trading day after tariffs were implemented, despite the impact of Trump's latest tough stance ("civilization may end tonight") and the marginal escalation of the Iran situation, the crypto market stubbornly held key levels—showing a resilient rebound that did not slow down as the "ultimatum approaches." Although there was slight volatility after European and US stock markets opened, the lows were quickly supported by funds, leverage liquidations remained low, and smart money's low-entry signals became more evident. Today, Trump escalated threats on Truth Social, causing oil prices to spike above $115 briefly before pulling back slightly, but the crypto market did not panic sell: BTC held around 67,800 at the day's low, with moderate 24-hour leverage liquidations, reaffirming the core judgment that "tariffs + geopolitical risks are already deeply priced in."

📊 Evening Data (as of around 14:00 UTC, April 7)
• BTC: $68,380 | +1.4% over 24h (rebounded quickly after a slight dip from early morning’s $68,450, European session low around $67,900, with narrower daily volatility)
• ETH: $2,081 | +2.9% over 24h (stronger than BTC, further widening relative strength)
• Global Market Cap: $2.34 trillion | -1.7% (slightly down from early morning’s $2.38 trillion, still above $2.3 trillion, with increased range-bound oscillation)
• Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)🔴 (down from 12 to 11 over 24h, still at historically low levels, recovery momentum paused but not out of control)

🔍 Market Reaction Interpretation
Today, Trump’s final ultimatum (deadline tonight at 8 PM ET) is counting down. He posted on Truth Social that "civilization may end tonight, I don’t want to see it, but it’s very likely," reaffirming plans for "total destruction" if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Meanwhile, rumors of strikes on Kharg Island pushed oil prices above $115 (WTI at $114.8). Yet, the crypto market again demonstrated strong resilience: BTC did not break below the early morning low, 24h leverage liquidations remained moderate (no large-scale liquidations), institutions and smart money continued to buy in extreme fear zones, highlighting the safe-haven attribute of "digital gold"—even if geopolitical risks intensify, prices can quickly stabilize and rebound, indicating that liquidity expectations post-tariffs have fully dominated the market.

Although the entire market saw a slight rebound and consolidation, sentiment shifted from "fear bottoming early" to "rational waiting + signals." The link between US stocks and crypto assets after opening did not hinder the rebound—in fact, under Trump’s latest threats, resilience was even stronger, suggesting the market is already pricing in potential negotiations or easing windows after tonight’s ultimatum.

⚡ Today’s real variable is accelerating
Trump’s 8 PM deadline is the current biggest catalyst. Iran remains tough (insisting on a permanent ceasefire + sanctions removal), but mediators (Pakistan, Egypt, etc.) are still pushing from behind the scenes. The actual shipping pressure through the Strait of Hormuz has increased but not fully closed. The high oil prices reflect short-term supply concerns, but actual escalation signals still depend on tonight’s outcome. The Fed’s rate cut path remains unchanged, and the liquidity restart window after tariffs is gradually opening. The risk has shifted from the “45-day proposal” to the “outcome of tonight’s game”—any signs of easing (even if not a permanent ceasefire) could sharply cool geopolitical sentiment and steepen the rebound slope.

🎯 My Market Outlook (Updated Evening Version)
The tariff story is completely over; geopolitical game + rate cut expectations remain the main theme for April, with market resilience repeatedly validated.
• BTC: $65,000–66,000 strong support remains effective, currently holding firmly above 68k, with short-term resistance at 70k–72k
• Target range: $78,000–$82,000 remains, with the timing window potentially moved forward due to tonight’s variables (if substantial progress occurs in the ultimatum, the probability of mid-April acceleration increases)
• As long as there’s no extreme escalation tonight (no complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump leaving room for negotiations), the rebound trend will stay strong

In one sentence:
The morning rally was driven by expectation shifts, while the evening held the bottom line of resilience—Trump’s final ultimatum + Iran escalation couldn’t break the market, and the fear index at 11 remains at a historically low level where V-shaped reversals are easiest. While others focus on the 8 PM deadline, you can already continue positioning for the main trend.

The April 7 evening market again proved with low-entry and quick stabilization: geopolitical risks may fluctuate, but post-tariff liquidity expectations have become the absolute mainstream. Keep your positions unchanged and patiently wait for key signals after Trump’s final ultimatum tonight. Continue to monitor oil price movements, Trump’s latest statements, and post-market US stock liquidity tonight.