Polymarket “Probability of a US-Iran ceasefire before May 15” drops to 37%, down 45% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket “U.S.-Iran ceasefire by May 15” has fallen to 37%, down 45% over the past 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the event contract of “When will there be a U.S.-Iran ceasefire” has already exceeded $107 million. The rules for the event contract are as follows: if the United States and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by the specified date (11:59 p.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.), (defined as a publicly announced ceasefire and agreed by both sides to stop direct military actions), then the market will be determined as “Yes,” otherwise “No.” A “formal ceasefire agreement” requires the U.S. government and the Iranian government to explicitly and publicly confirm that both sides have agreed to stop military hostilities against each other, or that it has been confirmed—through overwhelming consensus reported by the media—that a formal ceasefire agreement has been reached.

U.S. Vice President Vance previously reiterated that the deadline for Iran is 8:00 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time (8:00 a.m. Beijing time Wednesday), and said that Hark Island does not imply a strategic shift. Previously, according to two U.S. officials, before the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz arrived—at Trump’s request—the U.S. carried out strikes on military targets on Hark Island earlier on Tuesday (local time). One official said the U.S. struck more than 50 targets on the island. The officials said the strike took place early Tuesday at U.S. Eastern Time, and the targets did not include oil infrastructure. Trump has set Tuesday night (Eastern Time in the U.S.) as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, it faces the risk of a devastating strike on energy infrastructure.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets. Before pricing, see the changes.