Daily Market Overview — BTC

BTC's current position has not fundamentally changed from the trading range of the past 10 days. This narrow fluctuation at the end of a prolonged sideways movement can be analyzed and tracked using technical methods to predict the upcoming trend, but it requires significant effort—like using a sledgehammer to kill a chicken—and is not worth it.
For the market, you can watch more and act less, but you cannot ignore it. Traders who do not study the bear market trend often miss the arrival of the bull market.
From the perspective of daily and higher timeframes, the overall trend over the past two months has been in a bearish phase, with the second downward sideways correction on the bearish side. This sets the tone for analyzing all current movements.
Regarding recent localized movements, the candlestick pattern shows a "one bullish candle with two stars," but the MA30 has acted as resistance during the session and is also in a state of oscillation, so certainty is low. More information needs to be analyzed on smaller timeframes.
Even if there is a sudden rise driven by positive news, the high point will only reach around the control line at 75,180 and will not directly change the downward trend. The strategy remains to wait for a high sell-off after reaching resistance and a low buy-in after retesting the MA30, without directly betting on an upward breakout at this level.
From the 4H to 12H medium-term view, the previous "tower bottom" pattern was mentioned, which yielded a roughly 1% gain through an aggressive position, with a warning to take profits. The structure is still present but not strong.
After the "tower bottom" completes support near the neckline, support below should be considered in conjunction with internal structure, focusing on the upper boundary of the sideways zone at the bottom.
From the 1H and lower timeframes, four days ago, the trader indicated that if the price stayed above 69,222, a divergence would occur. This played out yesterday, with a 15-minute top divergence followed by a rally to 68,256. Essentially, this is a continuation of the divergence phase from last week, so previous articles advised taking profits rather than just breaking even.
Currently, all timeframes have returned to a mixed bullish and bearish structure. The local fluctuation radius is less than 1%. It’s better to watch more and act less, waiting for larger volatility before considering action.
Summary: The bearish trend remains the main tone on daily and higher timeframes. The "tower bottom" pattern formed briefly from 4H to 12H, but it is not strong below the 1H level. Therefore, the daily level is temporarily characterized as a rebound "near-M top" second peak, mainly to prevent a false breakout leading to a downward reversal. During minor pullbacks, traders can monitor the bottom of the 4H "tower bottom" for quick entries and exits. (See chart for details)
Aggressive support levels: 67,860–67,430 (monitor for quick entries/exits), second support: 64,775–63,720 (short-term trading, monitor for quick entries/exits, avoid during sharp declines),
Short-term resistance: 71,674–73,330, pattern divergence resistance: 75,180–77,380.
Major levels have an effective period ranging from a few weeks to half a year, with uncertain timing. When reached, trading opportunities will arise—use for reference but not for intraday decisions!
First support: 60,414–58,760 (quick entry/exit at 1:2 ratio),
Second support: 57,300–54,660 (sharp decline 1:2 rebound),
The 49,530–39,410 zone is the exhaustion area for the third wave of the bear market. #BTC