Unless there are unexpected developments, this year will see a small-scale financial crisis. There are three fuse points: the situation in Iran pushes up oil prices, and AI technology reshapes the relations of production. And the starting point of this storm is still the United States.

Many bloggers online predict that the crisis will break out in the first half of the year, but I don’t find that credible. Before a real crisis arrives, the market will usually first lure investors into going long—manufacturing false prosperity in the first half, then trading sideways at high levels in the second half. By the fourth quarter, that’s when the crash truly begins. Especially after the U.S. midterm elections in November are over, once the stabilizing funds pull back, the market will collapse instantly.

Those who say that things will blow up in the first half are being far too naive. Since everyone knows a crisis is coming, how could the big players still harvest anyone? How could a crisis even happen? So from May to July, the big players will definitely pump these bearish voices that have been calling for a downturn throughout the first half, until their assets go to zero.

My advice is very simple: keep your cash ready, and wait patiently until between the second half of 2026 and February 2027 to buy the dip. When the big bull market restarts in 2028, you will definitely thank the restrained and clear-headed version of yourself today. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战