BTC Trend and Stage Market Analysis 2026.04.07

Killa is a well-known technical analyst in the English-speaking crypto community and an experienced trader. Recently, he ended his short-term bearish positions and shifted to a long-term low-leverage deployment strategy.

I believe that $60k may not be the final bottom of this cycle, but I understand his analytical logic. Today, I will analyze the trend and stage market to help everyone distinguish between "long-term allocation" and "short-term trading."

Looking at the BTC weekly chart (Figure 1), Killa believes that the pullback since $126,000 has basically run its course, and I agree with that. Our main disagreement lies in the magnitude: he thinks the correction is about 80% complete, while I estimate it to be around 60%-70%. In terms of timing, he believes the market has entered the mid-to-late stage, whereas I think it is transitioning from mid-term to late-stage. Overall, my sense of the rhythm is about half a beat slower than his.

Considering both time and space, his long-term deployment is reasonable. He mentioned that his risk control level is around $38,000, and even if the price falls below that, he will look for opportunities to re-enter.

If the market develops according to my expected rhythm, how would Killa's strategy fare? His cost basis would be slightly higher than mine but still within an acceptable range; conversely, if the market moves faster, his advantage in cost basis would increase—since I prefer to confirm the right side before entering. In any case, we can both grasp the main phase from the cycle bottom to the next rally, with the difference possibly only in capturing 90% or 80% of the gains.

For investors with large capital and a focus on long-term allocation, spot holdings should mainly be held long-term. Such strategies have higher tolerance for errors. Whether starting to deploy at $60,000, $50,000, or $40,000 in batches, the average cost difference after the cycle transition usually does not exceed 10%—the key is proper position management.

From a trading perspective (see Figure 2, 4-hour chart), the timing for establishing long positions is not yet ripe. The probability of a short-term breakout above $76,000 is decreasing, and unless there is a significant change in fundamentals, a strong breakout is unlikely. Even if there is a rebound from around $60,000, it is likely just a correction, and the market may test lows again afterward. Therefore, I am still mainly bearish on the trend recently, with short-term bullish positions as a supplement.

As I mentioned before, my rhythm is about half a beat slower than Killa’s, so my spot and low-leverage long positions will be deployed slightly later—expected to gradually start from late April to May, with increased positions in summer depending on market movements. The plan will be dynamically adjusted based on actual trends, but one thing remains unchanged: like Killa, I will execute my allocation strategy through 2026 and hold at least until BTC breaks above $126,000 again.

There is no perfect strategy, nor an absolute top or bottom. The best approach is what suits you. Whether it’s Killa’s long-term allocation idea or my combined “stage trading + long-term holding” model, as long as you follow it strictly, you will eventually achieve your own results.

Let’s work together. $BTC ‌#Strategy再增持4871枚BTC