#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Trading volume fully receding! Bitcoin holds steady as expected, and the fifth wave decline may start at any time! April 7 Market Analysis

Morning Briefing:
1. Strategy: Increased holdings by 4,871 Bitcoin last week;
2. Strategy: Unrealized losses of approximately $4.73B, Bitmine unrealized losses about $7.2B;
3. U.S. CFTC Chairman: Federal regulatory framework has clarified that the CFTC has the authority to oversee prediction markets;
4. SEC Chairman: Crypto safe harbor proposal has been submitted to the White House for review, allowing projects to raise funds without immediate registration;
5. Argentine president reportedly had call records with LIBRA project personnel, and their "no relation" statement is being questioned;
6. U.S. court rules that New Jersey has no authority to restrict Kalshi sports prediction contracts;
7. OpenAI plans to go public as early as Q4;
8. Polymarket plans to upgrade its trading engine and launch a native stablecoin, Polymarket USD;
9. Bitmine increased holdings by 71,252 ETH last week, staking scale surpassing $7 billion;
10. South Korean fintech company Toss plans to issue a native cryptocurrency;
11. On-chain perpetual contract trading cools down: DEX trading volume has declined for five consecutive months, shrinking nearly 50% from its peak;
12. Strive increased BTC holdings by 113 coins, bringing total holdings to 13,791 BTC;
13. Empery Digital reduced holdings by 370 BTC last week, total holdings down to 2,989 BTC.
Currently, bullish momentum for BTC continues to weaken, with market support entirely dependent on Trump’s TACO policy expectations, which are barely holding.
4-hour cycle: Since rebounding from the $60k level, the bullish momentum curve has gradually weakened. Even as the price surged to around $70,300, no additional capital entered the long side, indicating a serious lack of confidence among bulls.
Daily cycle: The evening 8 PM close is likely to form a bearish inverted hammer candle, with selling pressure clearly evident above. The price only briefly touched the mid- to long-term upward trend line at 58, but failed to break through effectively, with the trend line still exerting strong resistance. Bulls are unable to break through.
Order book: Exchange sell orders are quietly increasing, and the short side is gradually gaining momentum. Currently, the bears are still observing and accumulating strength, waiting for two key events: Trump-related decision on April 8 morning and subsequent CPI inflation data release, which may trigger a concentrated move.
Overall pattern: At the weekly level, the fourth wave dead-cat bounce is nearing its end, with the rebound momentum fully exhausted. The subsequent weekly fifth wave decline is about to begin. Positions should be managed with caution and risk control, and preparations should be made in advance.