JPMorgan analyst warns Tesla stock could drop another 60%

A JPMorgan Chase analyst says investors should be highly cautious about Tesla stock, and he believes the share price could fall by 60% from current levels.

After Tesla’s delivery forecasts came in below expectations, JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman said the performance threshold the company faces today is also far lower than what was expected a few years ago. He noted that market expectations for first-quarter deliveries peaked in mid-2022. And although Tesla’s share price has risen more than 50% since then, market expectations for the company’s finances have deteriorated sharply over that period.

Brinkman pointed to earnings per share, a key metric that reflects the company’s profitability. He currently expects Tesla’s first-quarter earnings per share to be 30 cents, but he said the market’s average expectation for that quarter “once reached as high as $3.68.”

Brinkman said this is just one example of how Tesla’s expectations have been cut dramatically over the years—a trend that “does not build confidence in the company’s ability to deliver on ambitious future goals.” He noted that market expectations for earnings per share in 2030 are already about 38% lower than they were in 2022.

Brinkman wrote: “If anything can be gleaned from the huge gap between the performance described above and early expectations, as well as the continued downward revision of the market’s average expectations for future performance, it is this: even if the bright future imagined by bullish investors can be fully realized… the timing of its arrival may be far off from what was envisioned.”

Tesla’s current share price is about $359, down 20% since the beginning of 2026. In December last year, as Tesla began further testing autonomous ride-hailing taxis, the stock at one point touched a peak of nearly $499.

To maintain investor interest, CEO Musk previously said that 2026 will be an important year for Tesla. A dedicated autonomous taxi will begin production this month, and a humanoid robot is planned to start production later this year. Tesla also pledged to expand its ride-hailing service from two U.S. cities to nine by June.

These plans need time to scale, and they come with significant costs. Brinkman said that, as Tesla prepares to face what is expected to be the highest-cost year in its history, the company’s recent poor sales performance is further worsening its “free cash flow dilemma.”

In the prior fiscal quarter, Tesla produced more than 50k additional vehicles than it sold, leading to inventory buildup. JPMorgan estimates that its inventory level has reached a record. Tesla sold 358.02k electric vehicles in the quarter, which was below Wall Street’s expectations, but improved versus the very weak quarter a year earlier.

In addition, Tesla’s energy storage products delivered were 39% lower than expected, showing an unexpected drop after two consecutive quarters of growth. Ben Kalo of Baird said in a report last week that this underperformance may put pressure on the stock price in the near term, and he lowered Tesla’s target price from $548 to $538.

In a recent report to clients, Jed Dorsheimer of William Blair said, “This business can be unstable and will fluctuate based on customer grid interconnection timing, but that doesn’t fully explain the decline.” The analyst added that he feels “confused” because demand for energy storage products like Tesla Megapack still appears strong.

But just as JPMorgan’s Brinkman warned investors not to buy the dip, Andres Sheppard at Cantor Fitzgerald said on Monday that Tesla’s recent weakness provides investors with “a great entry point.”

Sheppard wrote in a report to clients: “We believe fiscal 2026 will be a transformational year for the company, as it will transition to autonomous driving, AI, and robotics.” He gave Tesla a “buy” rating with a target price of $510.

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责任编辑：李桐