#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Has the market already absorbed the sell-off after the miners' BTC liquidation?

Based on data, the concentrated selling pressure in Q1 (January-March) has largely been absorbed by the market, but the “de-stocking” process is not yet complete. The market is in a transition period from “miner-led supply” to “ETF/institution-led” dominance.

Sell-off review: The “tsunami” of Q1 is over

Q1 2026 was the peak period for miner cash-outs, but since April, signs of a slowdown in large-scale concentrated selling have appeared.

Total impact: Since October 2025, listed miners have sold over 15k BTC in total. In just Q1 2026, Riot sold 3,778 BTC, and MARA sold about 15k BTC in March alone (cash-out of approximately $1.1 billion).

Current levels: As of early April, leading miners like Riot still hold tens of thousands of BTC in inventory, but recent selling frequency has shifted from “full liquidation” to “strategic reduction” (e.g., Riot sold 500 BTC in a single transaction on April 2).

Market absorption: Liquidity has absorbed the impact

Despite the large volume of sell-offs, the market’s liquidity bottom has not been breached, as evidenced by prices remaining above $66k.

Depth test: The total miner sell-off in Q1 was roughly equivalent to 10%-20% of the global spot daily trading volume. Under the hedge of inflows from ETFs and institutional investors, this supply was effectively absorbed, avoiding a liquidity crisis.

Structural turnover: Selling mainly from miners (for AI transition financing), while buying has shifted to MicroStrategy (which increased holdings by about 75,000-90k BTC in Q1) and ETF investors. This indicates a transfer of chips from “high-leverage producers” to “long-term allocators,” which could reduce potential future sell pressure.

Future risks: Watch out for “slow variable” pressures

“Absorbing” does not mean “all negative news is gone.” Two potential pressure points to monitor:

Remaining inventory: Giants like MARA still hold tens of thousands of BTC. If AI data center construction continues to burn cash, this inventory remains a “Damocles sword” hanging over the market.

Sentiment contagion: Miners shifting from “HODLing faith” to “cash flow pragmatism” may weaken the market’s long-term bullish outlook, making prices more sensitive to negative news.

Conclusion: The most intense sell-off in Q1 is over, and the market has demonstrated its depth. However, miners’ capital expenditure needs for AI transformation remain, and in the coming quarters, the market may enter a “slow and steady” reduction mode rather than a single shock.