Refined oil products will face a price adjustment window, and institutions expect U.S. crude oil to decline in a stepped manner over the next three months.

Ask AI · How do Middle East conflicts affect this round of finished gasoline and diesel price increases?

China News Network, Beijing Economy and Trade, April 6 (Chen Junming) The next round of domestic refined oil pricing adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 7. Industry agencies predict that this round of oil prices will very likely be raised.

On the day of the previous round of oil price adjustment (March 23), the National Development and Reform Commission stated that since March 9 when domestic refined oil prices were adjusted, affected by the escalating conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, with especially Middle East crude oil prices hitting record highs one after another. To mitigate the impact caused by abnormal international oil price surges, ease the burden on downstream users, and ensure steady economic operation and the well-being of people’s livelihoods, on the basis of maintaining the current pricing mechanism framework, temporary control measures have been taken for domestic refined oil prices. After the control measures, for private car owners, based on a 50—60 liter fuel tank, topping up with 92-octane gasoline would cost about 40—50 yuan less.

A report from Lóngzhòng Information shows that during this pricing adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices remain on an upward trend, and refined oil prices corresponding to it also show an upward tendency. As of April 2, the average reference crude oil price during the cycle was 109.06 US dollars per barrel, up 2.24% from the previous cycle. It is expected that when the pricing adjustment window opens, the theoretical increase in corresponding refined oil prices will be around 130 yuan per ton, meaning this round of adjustments will very likely be an increase.

Lianlian Chuangxin states that in recent days, crude oil overall has shown a pattern of rally followed by pullback, with weekly average prices increasing month-on-month. Although high oil prices have begun to suppress some oil consumption, overall demand still demonstrates strong resilience. It is expected that global crude oil demand will gradually rise to about 106 million barrels per day and remain at a high level. Since the decline in demand is limited, it is difficult to fully offset the impact brought by supply contraction. Overall, the market remains in a tight balance, or even a shortage situation.

Lóngzhòng Information forecasts that, according to the domestic refined oil pricing adjustment mechanism, on April 8 the corresponding refined oil price increase will be around 130 yuan per ton, which will mark the sixth rise within the year. If prices are raised this time, using a 70-liter fuel tank as the basis, private car owners would pay about 6.7 yuan more to fill up a tank.

Source: Baotu.com

China News Network (Zhongxin Jingwei) notes that since the beginning of this year, domestic fuel prices have already gone through six rounds of adjustments, specifically “five increases and one pause.” Domestic gasoline and diesel prices per ton have increased by 2,320 and 2,235 yuan, respectively, compared with the end of last year. If this round of price adjustment is raised as expected, the pricing adjustment pattern for 2026 will change to “six increases and one pause.”

According to the “ten working days” principle, the next round of refined oil retail pricing adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 21, 2026.

Looking ahead, a report from Lóngzhòng Information shows that the US side has stated it will not become entangled with Iran for too long; the intensity of the conflict in the future is expected to decline. The issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is also being negotiated among multiple countries. Combined with the recently high volatility in international oil prices, it is expected that there is a relatively higher probability that the next round of refined oil pricing will be lowered.

Lianlian Chuangxin believes that regarding the ceasefire, the various diplomatic signals released by the US, Iran, and Israel are ambiguous. Therefore, uncertainty in Middle East geopolitical conditions and shipping still remains. If the US ends the war with Iran within a short period of time, then oil prices will accelerate downward; otherwise, they will continue to rise.

A report from Zhuochuang Information says that the current core differences between the US and Iran are difficult to reconcile, and the fighting has fallen into a stalemate. The efficiency of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has remained at a low level, and there have been no clear signals that geopolitical risks are easing. Against this backdrop, international oil prices may remain at high levels with broad-range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay close attention to the possibility that an escalation of the conflict beyond expectations could trigger extreme price volatility. Entering May and June, geopolitical events may gradually subside, market risk-aversion sentiment will cool, and crude oil prices are expected to gradually retreat from the high-price range. It is forecast that over the next three months, the average monthly prices of US crude oil will be 94.69 US dollars per barrel, 86.37 US dollars per barrel, and 72.51 US dollars per barrel, respectively, showing an overall stepwise downward trend. (China News Network APP)

(The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. There are risks in investing; proceed with caution.)