Today is April 7—the deadline for Trump's 48-hour final ultimatum ends today～

With the chess game now at this stage, three fronts are tightening at the same time:
Military front: On April 3, two U.S. aircraft were shot down within a single day—one F-15E over Iran, and one A-10 near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s air defenses haven’t collapsed, and fighting is much harder than expected～
Diplomatic front: Trump threatened to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges today; the United Nations responded directly: this would violate international law. The ultimatum has been repeatedly extended, and Saudi experts believe it is essentially a tool to exert pressure in negotiations, not a signal of a genuine military escalation～
Energy front: Strait of Hormuz traffic has already fallen to 5% of normal levels, and Qatar and the UAE’s LNG exports have basically come to a halt. Morgan Stanley expects the global LNG market this year to face an approximately 15 million-ton supply shortfall～
There is only one core contradiction right now:
Trump wants to end it quickly, while Iran wants to buy time and trade it for space. The media says the U.S. and its allies have begun preparing to keep the conflict going until September—showing that the “quick victory” script is quietly turning into a “protracted war” script～
“Caught on the tiger’s back” isn’t just a metaphor—it’s reality～
With today’s ultimatum set to expire, will there be escalation or extension—the answer lies in the next few hours～
The market is waiting, the world is waiting～
#中东战争 # Strait of Hormuz #伊朗 # Geopolitical risk