According to traditional cycles, the crypto market has already entered a bear market for some time. The normal rhythm is to grind until around 2028 before the market shows a real significant upward movement.

This round of bear market is a bit different. Over the past six months, this continuous decline has actually cleared out many emotions and leverage, and the short-term downward momentum is clearly weakening.

Therefore, I believe that in 2026, there may not necessarily be a reversal, but there is a high probability of a decent rebound.

As for whether 2027 will continue to strengthen or turn weak again, it actually depends on how far this rebound in 2026 can go: whether it is a healthy correction or a return to overheating.

Currently, the United States is one of the largest Bitcoin holders, with the strongest policy influence. Next, in November 2026, there will be midterm elections, focusing on the control of Congress. Such timing is never just a political event for the market; it’s also a game of liquidity and expectations.

In this context, policy directions can be inferred:
On one hand, monetary policy is likely to lean towards easing, such as expectations of interest rate cuts.
On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts also have the motivation to ease, aiming to provide the market with a relatively stable environment.

So, there's no need to wait until the midterm elections in November; the real changes might be reflected earlier, between July and September. By then, if liquidity expectations improve, global risk assets could warm up together.

For BTC, reaching $80k is not entirely impossible; it mainly depends on whether that wave of sentiment can be ignited.

However, if the rise is too rapid and aggressive, pushing emotions to the extreme again, a deep correction in 2027 would be very normal — cycles always move this way.

Even if you are confident about the rebound in 2026, try not to leverage too much, as BTC has already experienced five consecutive monthly declines.

Volatility within cycles is meant to shake out investors; those who can truly benefit from the big trend later are often not the most accurate predictors but those who survive the longest.

Looking at the longer term, many of the ups and downs in the middle will be smoothed out. What really matters is whether you hold onto core assets during the right cycle. #BTC四年周期